I politely declined the invitation, but the caller insisted on knowing why. When I told her that the founders and financiers of the Genesis Prize, Russian oligarchs Petr Aven, Mikhail Fridman and German Kahn, are now sanctioned by the EU, Britain and Canada, the caller was astonished – it was the first she’d heard about it. Long after we finished the conversation, I kept thinking about the Genesis Prize and about this inappropriate event amidst the human tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine.

A few years ago, while a Knesset Member, I attended the first Genesis prize ceremony when Michael Douglas was awarded the prize, which he then donated to charity. Many government ministers and MKs, as well as Israel’s president, were in the room. Mikhail Fridman, one of the richest Russian oligarchs (in 2021 he made it to the Forbes Top 20 list of rich Russians amid fierce competition), was beaming with satisfaction as his project took off. Born in Lviv, Fridman managed to survive through hard times, when President Putin went after the oligarchs in the early 2000s and took away their money and their independence. Fridman seemed to know how to play the game and unlike Mikhail Khodorkovsky or Leonid Nevzlin (the first was incarcerated for 10 years and the second moved to Israel), he never tried to challenge Putin or to finance opposition activity.

In 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea and established two proxy entities in the Donbass region, Fridman didn’t protest or object to that violent prelude to the 2022 war against Ukraine. Instead, he applied for a “golden passport” in Malta. As Russians like to put it, he wanted to secure for himself an “alternate aerodrome,” a safe place to land in an emergency. Fridman, who also has Israeli citizenship, never got his Maltese passport. In his application, he indicated that he was not a “significant political figure.” Authorities in Malta, a member of the EU, thought otherwise.

In 2021 Fridman made it onto the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) list of potential dangerous business partners in Russia. In February of this year, the European Union blacklisted Fridman and had all his assets frozen. Petr Aven and German Khan, his long-term partners and fellow former members of the Genesis Philanthropy Group board, were also slapped with sanctions.

In May the British authorities backed out of their promise to lift sanctions against Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, who, as part of the arrangement, donated US$150 million to humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Their accounts remained blocked, and Aven also faced a criminal case, while his famous collection of art objects was sanctioned. As a bonus, both of them were denied entry to the continent.

Today the oligarchs are fighting the EU sanctions (which they call groundless) in the courts. The three of them stepped down from the leadership of Alfa-Bank in order not to jeopardize the bank and other investment entities associated with it. The trio had also stepped down from the board of Genesis Philanthropy Group, however, there is little doubt where the money for the award and the ceremony comes from.

At the moment, Fridman, as well as Aven and Khan are working to regain access to their frozen funds – they fight in court, donate to Ukraine, and complain they don’t have enough money to pay their cleaning services. Mikhail Fridman even applied for a Ukrainian passport (apparently the Israeli one he carries is not good enough). None of them protested when Putin prepared his war, none of them denounced his previous aggressions against Georgia or Ukraine, while their Alfa-Bank handled exclusive contracts for Russian defense industry and had everything to do with Russia’s military machine. All of them are subject to heavy sanctions at the moment.

This reality casts a heavy shadow over the “Jewish Nobel” ceremony taking place this week in Jerusalem. I won’t be sitting in that room, but I’m sure many Israeli politicians and public figures will. Perhaps they don’t believe that the war in Ukraine is a global matter that matters for Israel too. They apparently see no problem with a ceremony long-sponsored by Russian oligarchs who were for too long involved in Putin’s show even if today they try so hard to absolve themselves from any connections to Putin.

הפוסט I won’t attend the Genesis Prize ceremony, nobody should הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, President Isaac Herzog, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Yad Vashem head Dani Dayan and many Israeli political and civil society leaders expressed outrage at Lavrov’s words, even as the Russian Foreign Ministry kept pouring oil on the fire and issuing statements about Israel “supporting neo-Nazis” in Ukraine and “Israeli mercenaries fighting with the Azov Battalion.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who for years maintained close ties with Israel, hasn’t yet reacted to this public row. However, even before Lavrov’s statements, the tensions between Moscow and Jerusalem were mounting.

Just last week, Israeli Ambassador to Russia Alexander Ben Zvi was summoned to the Foreign Ministry on Smolenskaya Square after Michael Brodsky, Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine, suggested that a few streets in Kyiv be renamed after righteous Ukrainians who saved Jews during the Holocaust. Before that incident, Russia strongly rebuked Lapid for denouncing the Russian war crimes in Ukraine and voting to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.

For the last few months, Israel has remained one of the few Western countries that didn’t impose sanctions on Russia and refrained from selling weapons to Ukraine. Bennett, unlike Lapid, never publicly condemned Russia for launching a war in Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, sent a conciliatory letter to Knesset Speaker Mickey Levy, in which Lavrov’s recent scandalous statements are mildly refuted. But no formal apologies from Lavrov have followed so far.

How will Israel’s balancing act be affected by the recent row over Lavrov’s statements, and what are the chances that Russia will settle the score with Israel in Syria, Iran, or Gaza?

The Palestinian card

During the last few weeks, while relations between Israel and Russia became tenser, the volume of communication between Moscow and various Palestinian factions kept growing. First, there was a call between Putin and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, then Lavrov initiated a conversation with senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. On Wednesday, a Hamas delegation led by veteran leader Musa Abu Marzouk paid a visit to Moscow.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is on the Russian list of terrorist organizations, Hamas –an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that has carried out hundreds of terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians – is not. Relations between Moscow and Hamas were launched in 2006, soon after Hamas won the parliamentary elections in the PA.

For the last few years, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not been at the center of Russian attention. What are the chances that Moscow will leverage its relations with Fatah – the ruling party in the PA – or Hamas now that its irritation with Israel is growing and the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and east Jerusalem is volatile?

Abbas Gallyamov, an independent political analyst and a former speechwriter for Putin, believes that initially there was no plan to undermine relations with Israel.

“Lavrov could issue an apology after that incident, and that would be the end of it. But the Kremlin’s political style is based on a criminal logic – they are always right, and owning a mistake, recognizing that a mistake was made, is a sign of weakness,” he told The Media Line.

“If Israel insists on its position and Russia fiercely defends its views, there is a potential for deterioration of relations. Moscow might activate Iran, Syria, or Hamas – without considering the outcome. That’s the problem: Putin never considers or evaluates the consequences. He is eager to join any fight in order to come out as the winner,” Gallyamov said.

The Syrian arena

Ever since the beginning of Russian involvement in Syria, Israel has been wary of issuing any criticism directed at Moscow, fearing the Kremlin might choose to retaliate and object more fiercely to Israeli military activity over Syrian skies.

Alexander Baunov, a Russian political analyst who previously served as a diplomat and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank that was forced to close last month, told The Media Line that under current conditions, while Russia is engaged in warfare in Ukraine, “a change of course in Syria will not come without costs.

“I can imagine that in the case of escalation Russia might rethink its policy on Israel’s activity in Syrian skies and try to prevent Israel from taking some forms of actions there. However, it seems to me that the Russian military machine is not up to it right now. In this case, they would need to beef up security in Syria, while currently, Russia is actually moving some forces from Syria to the front in Ukraine,” Baunov said.

Gallyamov suggests that Russia would also have a lot to lose from the deterioration of relations with Israel over Syria.

“Israel’s security interests in Syria are known, and it has a lot to lose. But Russia could also lose in this arena, yet it acts as if this kind of scenario is impossible. As a matter of fact, Russia is also vulnerable; its weapon systems – as we can now see – are less than perfect,” he said.

“Theoretically, Russia should not be interested in increasing the number of its enemies, but still, its logic, which originated in the criminal showdown of the ’90s [when after the breakup of the USSR the country was on the verge of collapse] doesn’t allow it to show weakness. It acts as a spoiler – and a spoiler is never a leader. By the way, if Israel would change its policy on Russia despite its fears regarding Russian activity in Syria, it might be well appreciated by the US,” Gallyamov said.

According to Baunov, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the division between the West and the “non-West” has become clearer.

“The leadership [in Moscow] had labeled itself as a vanguard of the non-West that wages a war against the West. Israel is definitely a part of the Western world, and when it has to make a choice, it will choose the West. At the same time, the Iranians and some Arabs are not affiliated with the West. The dichotomy is clear, and that’s why Russia might now lean more toward these non-Western actors than toward Israel,” the expert said.

Israeli weapons to Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?

Despite some reports in Israeli newspapers, it’s still premature to conclude that Israel will break its taboo and sell state-of-the-art weapons to Ukraine. How would Russia react if that happens?

“They don’t focus on the consequences. What will happen if Israel starts to supply the Ukrainians with the Iron Dome? They are chasing away this thought. And the Iron Dome might be this one last straw that will change the course of events in Ukraine,” said Gallyamov, who, like many experts, is confident that Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system might be a game-changer in Ukraine.

At the same time, Israel is worried that Russia might supply advanced weapon systems to Iran, especially if the Islamic Republic returns to the nuclear agreement with the US and is relieved of some sanctions.

While the current incident with Lavrov’s scandalous statements is far from being over, additional events may soon cast a shadow over the already tense relationship.

Many cities in Israel have canceled the May 9 Victory Day observations celebrating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany – a particularly sensitive issue for Moscow − and the fate of the Alexander Nevsky Church in Jerusalem, whose ownership Russia is demanding, is still undecided.

What is clear is that the distance between the two countries, which traditionally have belonged to different camps, will grow and the tensions will continue to mount, further destabilizing the Middle East.

This article is from “JPost“, from May 6, 2022

הפוסט Russia, Israel tensions will continue to mount: Russian experts הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

“Nurlan Saburov’s performances were announced back in 2019 and were repeatedly postponed due to corona-related restrictions. We cannot sit idly by as the conflict brews within the Israeli-Russian-speaking community, caused by the comedian’s arrival. We cannot allow violence or anyone to get hurt at an event that was intended to be purely entertainment.

“Despite significant financial losses for us, it was decided to cancel Nurlan Saburov’s performances in Israel.”

The decision to cancel Saburov’s shows wasn’t born out of the blue. Angry posts by Ukraine supporters in Israel and concerted pressure on Bezalel Events came first. By April 16, Anna Zharova, the founder of the Israeli Friends of Ukraine organization, asked everyone who cared for Ukraine to write to Bezalel Events and demand the cancellation of Saborov’s Israeli tour.

“This artist who keeps his mouth shut about the war in Ukraine has no right to perform in our country,” she wrote on social media.

Recently Saburov was at the center of an incident with a Ukrainian activist during a performance in San Francisco. She ran to the stage wearing a dress that was drenched in red paint. Saburov asked her whether she was menstruating. The audience and the organizers didn’t appreciate the humor, and the following performance in Chicago was canceled.

According to eyewitnesses, the organizers checked the phones of the audience prior to Saburov’s concert in Miami – to exclude pro-Ukrainian activists. When asked about his position toward the war in Ukraine, the comedian acknowledged that he was afraid, and mentioned that “he has a family in Russia.”

Following the cancellation of Saburov’s Israel tour, pro-Ukraine Israeli activists decided to move on to Grigory Leps, another Russian star who was supposed to perform in Israel by the end of May.

In 2013, the US Treasury Department blacklisted Leps, who often praised Vladimir Putin for his aggressive policy in Ukraine, over alleged links to an international criminal group, and during the last few years, he was banned in the US, Latvia, and a few other European countries. Recently his producer Kirill Chibisov said in an interview with Russia’s Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper that Leps cannot enter the US or the UK and his foreign accounts are frozen.

“For the last 20 years, Leps has been earning a lot of money. He kept part of it in American and London banks. And now the singer cannot go abroad. All accounts are frozen; therefore, there is no access to funds,” Chibisov said.

By April 20, the management of Tel Aviv’s Charles Bronfman Auditorium announced that Leps’ concert in Israel was canceled. The news triggered a heated discussion on Russian Israeli social media, where many supported the cancellation and wrote that Leps and other Russian artists who support Putin and his war are not welcome in Israel, while others feared a witch hunt against Russian culture.

“Do we live in a free country?” asked Andrey Baytalsky, an Israeli actor and musician.

Kyiv-born Elena Yaralova, a famous Russian Israeli actress, says there is no intention to cancel everything Russian or to collectively punish every Russian singer or performer.

“There are three groups: [First] those who actively support this ‘special operation,’ though I believe that they hardly believe it themselves,” Yaralova told The Media Line.

“Another group mostly remains silent because they are scared. I do not judge them because it’s not fair – we live in a democratic country and we don’t know how any of us would behave in this situation,” she said.

“There are also a few others who are tremendously courageous, and they speak against the war and condemn it. But they are very few,” she continued.

“The current situation is extreme, and I can’t embrace artists who support this bloody war. It is very wrong. People are dying in Ukraine, the situation is horrific. Personally, I dreamed of seeing War and Peace performed by Moscow’s Vakhtangov Theater. But when I heard that they are coming as part of a Roman Abramovich-sponsored festival, I started sending messages to the organizers. I asked them, ‘Do you think it’s acceptable to bring this theater here in the midst of this horror?’” Yaralova said.

Russian Israeli photographer Alexander Khanin, who often goes by the nickname “Sasha Deda,” believes that while Leps’ concert would be canceled in any case due to technical reasons, Israel, being a democratic country, should not ban visits by Russian performers.

“We demand a lot of these people, even too much. We want them to go on stage and tell us whether they support Putin or not. Those who immigrated [to Israel] from Russia – like [rock musician] Andrey Makarevich or [comedian, impressionist, and TV host] Maxim Galkin – they are safe, protected. Those who live in Russia cannot express their real position. They need to earn bread for their families, they are just doing their job,” Khanin told The Media Line.

The Ukrainian State Film Agency recently appealed to the head of the Cannes Film Festival, Pierre Lescure, with a call to withdraw works by Russian filmmakers from the 2022 competition program. The appeal published on the Goskino website mentions Kirill Serebrennikov’s film Tchaikovsky’s Wife.

Serebrennikov, who recently left Russia and denounced the war in Ukraine, is well known for his opposition to Putin. His ordeal triggered a heated debate among pro-Ukraine activists regarding opposition to Russian artists and performers.

Zharova said she does not support the effort to exclude Serebrennikov from Cannes.

“I can relate to the justified anger of some people who lost relatives and feel deep pain. But we need to differentiate between those who support the war and those who support us, support Ukraine. There is no witch hunt here, and yes, we have to choose our battles very carefully,” said Zharova, who is also an aspiring actress.

As the war in Ukraine enters its third month, the Russian-speaking community in Israel continues to experience divisions and disagreements. Some believe that Israel should stay neutral or even supportive of Russia, while others demand more support, including the supply of arms supplies, for Ukraine.

Next month, during the May 9 celebrations of Victory Day – the victory over Nazi Germany – these tensions may reach a climax, as many pro-Ukraine activists believe this special day has now been defiled by atrocities performed in Ukraine. And just like everywhere else, the debate over cancel culture in Israel will continue.

This article is from “JPost“, from April 22, 2022

הפוסט Toxic Performers: Israeli activists struggle to cancel shows by Putin sympathizers הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

As American diplomats leave their offices in Kyiv, NATO soldiers deploy in the Baltic states and Israel prepares to evacuate Ukrainian Jews, it feels like war between Russia and Ukraine is just around the corner. But is another Russian-Ukrainian war truly inevitable? And what role is the media playing in heating up the already charged atmosphere?

‘Kyiv feels a lot like Tel Aviv these days’

“Personally, I’m not engaged in preparations for a war that might or might not happen. Call it a matter of superstition. Life in Kyiv goes on – the cafés are full, everything is open,”

Evgeny Kiselev, once a Russian TV star and a pioneering journalist who was not afraid to criticize the political elite, tells The Media Line. Since 2008, he has been living in Ukraine, where he presents a popular political talk show.

“In this way, Kyiv feels a lot like Tel Aviv: The Gaza Strip is just a few dozen kilometers away and the rockets launched from Gaza can explode at any moment. But people still enjoy the sun and life,” he continues.

“We do the same. At the same time, some people are worried about a possible invasion, and some are even packing – just in case. If the worst scenario comes true, they might leave Kyiv and go west, to stay with friends and relatives. However, Ukraine has seen many occupiers, but no one was able to swallow it. Even when it was a part of a Russian empire, it still succeeded to maintain its culture and identity,” Kiselev says.

Anna Zarova, CEO of the Israeli-Ukrainian Alliance (IUA), an “international company focused on the enhancement of social, business and investment relations between” the two countries, just returned to Israel from Odessa.

Zarova told The Media Line she didn’t feel any anxiety among the residents of the city. “It was as if I ended up in a parallel reality. My Israeli friends were very worried about me, but in Odessa, I didn’t see any signs of impending war.”

Dr. Evgeni Klauber, an expert on former Soviet Union countries who teaches at Tel Aviv University, points to an interesting fact. “Look at Ukrainian top military leaders. They are not in Ukraine, they are abroad – meeting and convening with foreign leaders. If they really thought that an invasion was imminent, they would rush home to be with the troops and to prepare for the war,” Klauber tells The Media Line.

The news that dependents and all nonessential US Embassy staff were evacuating Ukraine was greeted with a great deal of astonishment. “It seems that the Americans exaggerate and even inflate the situation, perhaps in order to praise themselves and President Biden later,” says Kiselev.

Klauber explains, “We do experience a great deal of exaggeration, and even fake news.”

He believes the media are creating an atmosphere of fear and hysteria instead of dealing rationally with an analysis of the situation.

The zero hour

During the last few months, experts and analysts have laid out various scenarios for a possible war, from Russia taking over additional swaths of the Donbass region in the southeast to it occupying Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and largest city.

In Ukraine, however, many believe war is not a done deal, at least not yet.

“The threat of war is worse than the war itself: In order to carry out an offensive operation of this scale, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin actually needs not 100,000, but 200,000 to 300,000 troops amassed at the border,” says Kiselev.

“For now, he is getting exactly what he wants: The West is already making bargains with him. It’s clear to all that the terms that were presented by Russia in December are a nonstarter. Therefore, all of this is being done for propaganda purposes: Russia fears for its security, and NATO is sending ammunition and planes [to Ukraine],” Kiselev adds.

According to Klauber, war in Ukraine might happen as the result of a violent dynamic in the self-proclaimed republics in the eastern part of the country, but a full-scale war or even a partial occupation of Ukraine is just not part of the Russian president’s agenda.

“Also, [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelensky knows that Putin does not intend to attack,” he continues.

“Putin wants to create pressure on Zelensky. While everyone is stressed because of the concentration of 120,000 Russian soldiers at the border, people tend to forget that just a few months ago, in September, some 250,000 [Russian] soldiers participated in a military drill in that area. There was also a similar movement of troops in March 2020. The current drill is a third of one during the last 12 months, and for the meanwhile – the smallest in volume,” Klauber says.

“I tend to believe that Putin is not interested in taking over parts of Ukraine. He simply wants it all, but without rows of tanks on Ukrainian land and hundreds of dead soldiers returning home in caskets. His goal is the miraculous revival of the Minsk agreements,” he says.

The Minsk Protocol and the Minsk II accord, which sought to end the war in Ukraine’s Donbass region, were signed in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

“Many parts of these agreements were never implemented, and the Ukrainians refused to stand by them. Now, when the threat of war has become more real, Kyiv has started speaking about implementing some parts of the agreement, and this is a considerable gain for Putin,” Klauber explains.

The world (and the Middle East) is watching

Today, as the world watches closely the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, some countries are already drawing conclusions. This may be true as regards China vis-à-vis Taiwan and even in the case of the Yemenite Houthi movement vs. the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

“Despite the war drums and the powerful language (that mainly comes from the US State Department), the West seems to be ready to cave in to Putin – each country for a different reason,” the expert continues.

“Putin is taking a risk here because war can erupt even if he is not interested in it if some of his protégées in Luhansk or Donetsk go rogue, but there is also a chance that he will be able to squeeze the Ukrainians into accepting the Minsk agreements without shooting a single bullet,” Klauber says.

The Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic are unrecognized breakaway states that were established by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

According to Zarova, while the American diplomats are packing their bags, Ukrainians are paying particular attention to what happens at the Israeli Embassy in Kyiv. “There is talk about the possible evacuation of the Jews and of the Israeli citizens who reside in Ukraine, but for now they are staying put and the embassy carries on as usual,” she says.

Zarova, who was born and raised in Ukraine, expects Israel to take a firmer position on the conflict.

“Yes, there is complexity because of the Russian presence in Syria. And yet, Israel can do a lot to help the Ukrainians. In 2014, all the aid that was provided to the Ukrainian people was the doing of volunteers and civil society organizations. Israel did very little. So if it will provide some help of this kind, there will be a positive impact,” she says.

For now, Israelis of Ukrainian origin are watching the situation on the ground closely, Zarova explains. In the event of a ground invasion they will immediately mobilize, to protest and demand that the Israeli government take a stand, she says.

For now, it seems that all sides continue to play the waiting game. It’s unclear how long this phase will last.

This article is posted on “The Media Line” on January 26, 2022

הפוסט Putin’s Ukraine Gambit Risks Starting Unintended War: Experts הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.