It was impossible to miss the positive and optimistic coverage of Netanyahu, and it brought to mind similar coverage of President Donald Trump’s campaign and victory in 2016. When the Kremlin looks at Netanyahu, it sees a friend with whom Moscow can find a common language.

This sentiment was perfectly expressed in a recent Telegram post by Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council: “The return of Benjamin Netanyahu to the PM’s office in Israel is good news for Moscow, and the point here is absolutely not whether he is ‘Putin’s friend’ or not. He is a friend of the Russian vision of the world.”

Naumov explains that Russia prefers countries that mind their own business, not “the interests of mankind,” preferring “the Erdogans, Trumps and Netanyahus” of the world over the “difficult” Bidens and Johnsons. The Kremlin is pleased that Netanyahu will most likely “take care of Israel’s security interests” but be “absolutely numb to the ideology of the future of the human race.”

Naumov’s assessment is correct, but also troubling. For the past eight months, Netanyahu has been extremely quiet about the ongoing war in Ukraine. He has never called the war a war, and didn’t make any reference to the invasion at all until very recently.

During a late October interview with MSNBC, Netanyahu placed his support behind the “prudent” policies of the Bennett-Lapid governments regarding Ukraine, and added that weapons supplied by Israel in the past to foreign governments “in one battlefield end up in Iranian hands used against us.” Officially, Israel refrains from supplying weapons to Ukraine, fearing Russian retaliation in Syria or on other fronts.

Soon after this interview, Netanyahu told USA Today that he would “look into the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine” if he were to return to the prime minister’s office. “We all have sympathy for Ukraine,” he added. “It’s not even a question, and I’m no different.”

The Russians, who previously had been fast to condemn and threaten Israel over every rumor about possible weapon supply to Ukraine, surprisingly didn’t make any reference to Netanyahu’s campaign promises in their post-election coverage. Perhaps they believe that they know him well, and that it would be significantly easier for Moscow to find a common language with a man who wrote in his recent memoir that “Putin is smart and insightful and completely focused on one goal as a politician: to restore Russia to its historical greatness,” than with the alternatives.

Indeed, Netanyahu might soon find himself under a Russian “friendly offensive”: he might get a call from Putin to congratulate him on his victory, or receive a suggestion from the Kremlin to host a visit of a Russian diplomat or politician to Israel.

Just a year ago, Netanyahu — who used a photo with Putin in a 2019 campaign poster — would probably have been delighted. But these days, when any coziness with the Russian leader is considered toxic in the West, he might feel differently.

In March, Israeli Prime Minister Bennett tried his luck mediating between Moscow and Kyiv. Lacking any powerful tools or personal connections, Bennett was unsuccessful in his stint as peace broker, and quietly put an end to this saga.

Netanyahu might want to explore this direction, too, in order to maintain his ties to both sides without risking American ire, as well as to promote his image of a seasoned and respected international politician.

It’s unclear how this kind of initiative will be perceived in Washington, and how Netanyahu will be able to explain his friendly ties with a Moscow that gets closer each day to Tehran.

Logic suggests that, as U.S. intelligence indicates that Russia might repay the Iranians by assisting their nuclear program, any Israeli leader would draw a clear red line. All the more so Netanyahu, who has long campaigned to stop a nuclear Iran.

But it remains to be seen what policies Netanyahu will wage on Russia, Ukraine and Iran. How he will maneuver Israel’s essential relations with the U.S. and ties with his old friend Vladimir Putin is very much an open question.

As of today, in Russia, it’s obvious that Moscow is currently optimistic about Netanyahu’s victory. It never made a secret about its view of his political adversary, Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Now, the Kremlin believes it has a much friendlier leader with whom to work.

Moscow will probably make a move to test the waters the moment Netanyahu forms a government and starts his term. However, in our new, post-Feb. 24 invasion reality, it might also find out that the tide is turning, and that warmness with Israel is a thing of the past.

One can only hope.

This article is posted in “Foward” from November 8, 2022

הפוסט What Netanyahu’s win in the Israeli elections means for the war in Ukraine הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

I politely declined the invitation, but the caller insisted on knowing why. When I told her that the founders and financiers of the Genesis Prize, Russian oligarchs Petr Aven, Mikhail Fridman and German Kahn, are now sanctioned by the EU, Britain and Canada, the caller was astonished – it was the first she’d heard about it. Long after we finished the conversation, I kept thinking about the Genesis Prize and about this inappropriate event amidst the human tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine.

A few years ago, while a Knesset Member, I attended the first Genesis prize ceremony when Michael Douglas was awarded the prize, which he then donated to charity. Many government ministers and MKs, as well as Israel’s president, were in the room. Mikhail Fridman, one of the richest Russian oligarchs (in 2021 he made it to the Forbes Top 20 list of rich Russians amid fierce competition), was beaming with satisfaction as his project took off. Born in Lviv, Fridman managed to survive through hard times, when President Putin went after the oligarchs in the early 2000s and took away their money and their independence. Fridman seemed to know how to play the game and unlike Mikhail Khodorkovsky or Leonid Nevzlin (the first was incarcerated for 10 years and the second moved to Israel), he never tried to challenge Putin or to finance opposition activity.

In 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea and established two proxy entities in the Donbass region, Fridman didn’t protest or object to that violent prelude to the 2022 war against Ukraine. Instead, he applied for a “golden passport” in Malta. As Russians like to put it, he wanted to secure for himself an “alternate aerodrome,” a safe place to land in an emergency. Fridman, who also has Israeli citizenship, never got his Maltese passport. In his application, he indicated that he was not a “significant political figure.” Authorities in Malta, a member of the EU, thought otherwise.

In 2021 Fridman made it onto the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) list of potential dangerous business partners in Russia. In February of this year, the European Union blacklisted Fridman and had all his assets frozen. Petr Aven and German Khan, his long-term partners and fellow former members of the Genesis Philanthropy Group board, were also slapped with sanctions.

In May the British authorities backed out of their promise to lift sanctions against Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, who, as part of the arrangement, donated US$150 million to humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Their accounts remained blocked, and Aven also faced a criminal case, while his famous collection of art objects was sanctioned. As a bonus, both of them were denied entry to the continent.

Today the oligarchs are fighting the EU sanctions (which they call groundless) in the courts. The three of them stepped down from the leadership of Alfa-Bank in order not to jeopardize the bank and other investment entities associated with it. The trio had also stepped down from the board of Genesis Philanthropy Group, however, there is little doubt where the money for the award and the ceremony comes from.

At the moment, Fridman, as well as Aven and Khan are working to regain access to their frozen funds – they fight in court, donate to Ukraine, and complain they don’t have enough money to pay their cleaning services. Mikhail Fridman even applied for a Ukrainian passport (apparently the Israeli one he carries is not good enough). None of them protested when Putin prepared his war, none of them denounced his previous aggressions against Georgia or Ukraine, while their Alfa-Bank handled exclusive contracts for Russian defense industry and had everything to do with Russia’s military machine. All of them are subject to heavy sanctions at the moment.

This reality casts a heavy shadow over the “Jewish Nobel” ceremony taking place this week in Jerusalem. I won’t be sitting in that room, but I’m sure many Israeli politicians and public figures will. Perhaps they don’t believe that the war in Ukraine is a global matter that matters for Israel too. They apparently see no problem with a ceremony long-sponsored by Russian oligarchs who were for too long involved in Putin’s show even if today they try so hard to absolve themselves from any connections to Putin.

הפוסט I won’t attend the Genesis Prize ceremony, nobody should הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, President Isaac Herzog, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Yad Vashem head Dani Dayan and many Israeli political and civil society leaders expressed outrage at Lavrov’s words, even as the Russian Foreign Ministry kept pouring oil on the fire and issuing statements about Israel “supporting neo-Nazis” in Ukraine and “Israeli mercenaries fighting with the Azov Battalion.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who for years maintained close ties with Israel, hasn’t yet reacted to this public row. However, even before Lavrov’s statements, the tensions between Moscow and Jerusalem were mounting.

Just last week, Israeli Ambassador to Russia Alexander Ben Zvi was summoned to the Foreign Ministry on Smolenskaya Square after Michael Brodsky, Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine, suggested that a few streets in Kyiv be renamed after righteous Ukrainians who saved Jews during the Holocaust. Before that incident, Russia strongly rebuked Lapid for denouncing the Russian war crimes in Ukraine and voting to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.

For the last few months, Israel has remained one of the few Western countries that didn’t impose sanctions on Russia and refrained from selling weapons to Ukraine. Bennett, unlike Lapid, never publicly condemned Russia for launching a war in Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, sent a conciliatory letter to Knesset Speaker Mickey Levy, in which Lavrov’s recent scandalous statements are mildly refuted. But no formal apologies from Lavrov have followed so far.

How will Israel’s balancing act be affected by the recent row over Lavrov’s statements, and what are the chances that Russia will settle the score with Israel in Syria, Iran, or Gaza?

The Palestinian card

During the last few weeks, while relations between Israel and Russia became tenser, the volume of communication between Moscow and various Palestinian factions kept growing. First, there was a call between Putin and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, then Lavrov initiated a conversation with senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. On Wednesday, a Hamas delegation led by veteran leader Musa Abu Marzouk paid a visit to Moscow.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is on the Russian list of terrorist organizations, Hamas –an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that has carried out hundreds of terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians – is not. Relations between Moscow and Hamas were launched in 2006, soon after Hamas won the parliamentary elections in the PA.

For the last few years, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not been at the center of Russian attention. What are the chances that Moscow will leverage its relations with Fatah – the ruling party in the PA – or Hamas now that its irritation with Israel is growing and the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and east Jerusalem is volatile?

Abbas Gallyamov, an independent political analyst and a former speechwriter for Putin, believes that initially there was no plan to undermine relations with Israel.

“Lavrov could issue an apology after that incident, and that would be the end of it. But the Kremlin’s political style is based on a criminal logic – they are always right, and owning a mistake, recognizing that a mistake was made, is a sign of weakness,” he told The Media Line.

“If Israel insists on its position and Russia fiercely defends its views, there is a potential for deterioration of relations. Moscow might activate Iran, Syria, or Hamas – without considering the outcome. That’s the problem: Putin never considers or evaluates the consequences. He is eager to join any fight in order to come out as the winner,” Gallyamov said.

The Syrian arena

Ever since the beginning of Russian involvement in Syria, Israel has been wary of issuing any criticism directed at Moscow, fearing the Kremlin might choose to retaliate and object more fiercely to Israeli military activity over Syrian skies.

Alexander Baunov, a Russian political analyst who previously served as a diplomat and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank that was forced to close last month, told The Media Line that under current conditions, while Russia is engaged in warfare in Ukraine, “a change of course in Syria will not come without costs.

“I can imagine that in the case of escalation Russia might rethink its policy on Israel’s activity in Syrian skies and try to prevent Israel from taking some forms of actions there. However, it seems to me that the Russian military machine is not up to it right now. In this case, they would need to beef up security in Syria, while currently, Russia is actually moving some forces from Syria to the front in Ukraine,” Baunov said.

Gallyamov suggests that Russia would also have a lot to lose from the deterioration of relations with Israel over Syria.

“Israel’s security interests in Syria are known, and it has a lot to lose. But Russia could also lose in this arena, yet it acts as if this kind of scenario is impossible. As a matter of fact, Russia is also vulnerable; its weapon systems – as we can now see – are less than perfect,” he said.

“Theoretically, Russia should not be interested in increasing the number of its enemies, but still, its logic, which originated in the criminal showdown of the ’90s [when after the breakup of the USSR the country was on the verge of collapse] doesn’t allow it to show weakness. It acts as a spoiler – and a spoiler is never a leader. By the way, if Israel would change its policy on Russia despite its fears regarding Russian activity in Syria, it might be well appreciated by the US,” Gallyamov said.

According to Baunov, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the division between the West and the “non-West” has become clearer.

“The leadership [in Moscow] had labeled itself as a vanguard of the non-West that wages a war against the West. Israel is definitely a part of the Western world, and when it has to make a choice, it will choose the West. At the same time, the Iranians and some Arabs are not affiliated with the West. The dichotomy is clear, and that’s why Russia might now lean more toward these non-Western actors than toward Israel,” the expert said.

Israeli weapons to Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?

Despite some reports in Israeli newspapers, it’s still premature to conclude that Israel will break its taboo and sell state-of-the-art weapons to Ukraine. How would Russia react if that happens?

“They don’t focus on the consequences. What will happen if Israel starts to supply the Ukrainians with the Iron Dome? They are chasing away this thought. And the Iron Dome might be this one last straw that will change the course of events in Ukraine,” said Gallyamov, who, like many experts, is confident that Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system might be a game-changer in Ukraine.

At the same time, Israel is worried that Russia might supply advanced weapon systems to Iran, especially if the Islamic Republic returns to the nuclear agreement with the US and is relieved of some sanctions.

While the current incident with Lavrov’s scandalous statements is far from being over, additional events may soon cast a shadow over the already tense relationship.

Many cities in Israel have canceled the May 9 Victory Day observations celebrating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany – a particularly sensitive issue for Moscow − and the fate of the Alexander Nevsky Church in Jerusalem, whose ownership Russia is demanding, is still undecided.

What is clear is that the distance between the two countries, which traditionally have belonged to different camps, will grow and the tensions will continue to mount, further destabilizing the Middle East.

This article is from “JPost“, from May 6, 2022

הפוסט Russia, Israel tensions will continue to mount: Russian experts הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

“Nurlan Saburov’s performances were announced back in 2019 and were repeatedly postponed due to corona-related restrictions. We cannot sit idly by as the conflict brews within the Israeli-Russian-speaking community, caused by the comedian’s arrival. We cannot allow violence or anyone to get hurt at an event that was intended to be purely entertainment.

“Despite significant financial losses for us, it was decided to cancel Nurlan Saburov’s performances in Israel.”

The decision to cancel Saburov’s shows wasn’t born out of the blue. Angry posts by Ukraine supporters in Israel and concerted pressure on Bezalel Events came first. By April 16, Anna Zharova, the founder of the Israeli Friends of Ukraine organization, asked everyone who cared for Ukraine to write to Bezalel Events and demand the cancellation of Saborov’s Israeli tour.

“This artist who keeps his mouth shut about the war in Ukraine has no right to perform in our country,” she wrote on social media.

Recently Saburov was at the center of an incident with a Ukrainian activist during a performance in San Francisco. She ran to the stage wearing a dress that was drenched in red paint. Saburov asked her whether she was menstruating. The audience and the organizers didn’t appreciate the humor, and the following performance in Chicago was canceled.

According to eyewitnesses, the organizers checked the phones of the audience prior to Saburov’s concert in Miami – to exclude pro-Ukrainian activists. When asked about his position toward the war in Ukraine, the comedian acknowledged that he was afraid, and mentioned that “he has a family in Russia.”

Following the cancellation of Saburov’s Israel tour, pro-Ukraine Israeli activists decided to move on to Grigory Leps, another Russian star who was supposed to perform in Israel by the end of May.

In 2013, the US Treasury Department blacklisted Leps, who often praised Vladimir Putin for his aggressive policy in Ukraine, over alleged links to an international criminal group, and during the last few years, he was banned in the US, Latvia, and a few other European countries. Recently his producer Kirill Chibisov said in an interview with Russia’s Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper that Leps cannot enter the US or the UK and his foreign accounts are frozen.

“For the last 20 years, Leps has been earning a lot of money. He kept part of it in American and London banks. And now the singer cannot go abroad. All accounts are frozen; therefore, there is no access to funds,” Chibisov said.

By April 20, the management of Tel Aviv’s Charles Bronfman Auditorium announced that Leps’ concert in Israel was canceled. The news triggered a heated discussion on Russian Israeli social media, where many supported the cancellation and wrote that Leps and other Russian artists who support Putin and his war are not welcome in Israel, while others feared a witch hunt against Russian culture.

“Do we live in a free country?” asked Andrey Baytalsky, an Israeli actor and musician.

Kyiv-born Elena Yaralova, a famous Russian Israeli actress, says there is no intention to cancel everything Russian or to collectively punish every Russian singer or performer.

“There are three groups: [First] those who actively support this ‘special operation,’ though I believe that they hardly believe it themselves,” Yaralova told The Media Line.

“Another group mostly remains silent because they are scared. I do not judge them because it’s not fair – we live in a democratic country and we don’t know how any of us would behave in this situation,” she said.

“There are also a few others who are tremendously courageous, and they speak against the war and condemn it. But they are very few,” she continued.

“The current situation is extreme, and I can’t embrace artists who support this bloody war. It is very wrong. People are dying in Ukraine, the situation is horrific. Personally, I dreamed of seeing War and Peace performed by Moscow’s Vakhtangov Theater. But when I heard that they are coming as part of a Roman Abramovich-sponsored festival, I started sending messages to the organizers. I asked them, ‘Do you think it’s acceptable to bring this theater here in the midst of this horror?’” Yaralova said.

Russian Israeli photographer Alexander Khanin, who often goes by the nickname “Sasha Deda,” believes that while Leps’ concert would be canceled in any case due to technical reasons, Israel, being a democratic country, should not ban visits by Russian performers.

“We demand a lot of these people, even too much. We want them to go on stage and tell us whether they support Putin or not. Those who immigrated [to Israel] from Russia – like [rock musician] Andrey Makarevich or [comedian, impressionist, and TV host] Maxim Galkin – they are safe, protected. Those who live in Russia cannot express their real position. They need to earn bread for their families, they are just doing their job,” Khanin told The Media Line.

The Ukrainian State Film Agency recently appealed to the head of the Cannes Film Festival, Pierre Lescure, with a call to withdraw works by Russian filmmakers from the 2022 competition program. The appeal published on the Goskino website mentions Kirill Serebrennikov’s film Tchaikovsky’s Wife.

Serebrennikov, who recently left Russia and denounced the war in Ukraine, is well known for his opposition to Putin. His ordeal triggered a heated debate among pro-Ukraine activists regarding opposition to Russian artists and performers.

Zharova said she does not support the effort to exclude Serebrennikov from Cannes.

“I can relate to the justified anger of some people who lost relatives and feel deep pain. But we need to differentiate between those who support the war and those who support us, support Ukraine. There is no witch hunt here, and yes, we have to choose our battles very carefully,” said Zharova, who is also an aspiring actress.

As the war in Ukraine enters its third month, the Russian-speaking community in Israel continues to experience divisions and disagreements. Some believe that Israel should stay neutral or even supportive of Russia, while others demand more support, including the supply of arms supplies, for Ukraine.

Next month, during the May 9 celebrations of Victory Day – the victory over Nazi Germany – these tensions may reach a climax, as many pro-Ukraine activists believe this special day has now been defiled by atrocities performed in Ukraine. And just like everywhere else, the debate over cancel culture in Israel will continue.

This article is from “JPost“, from April 22, 2022

הפוסט Toxic Performers: Israeli activists struggle to cancel shows by Putin sympathizers הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

The Russian government and its propaganda machine has not, and will not, acknowledge any of the atrocities perpetrated by Russian soldiers in Ukraine – in Mariupol, Bucha, Berdyanka or anywhere else.

First of all, according to the Kremlin, there is no war going on in Ukraine. Second of all – the Russians soldiers there only hit military targets, and as for destroyed cities and slain citizens – they’re the cynical manipulations of the Ukrainian army or local defense battalions who committed those actions themselves in an attempt to defame Russia’s good name.

So when the whole world, horrified by the war crimes revealed in Bucha, asks: “What is next for Russia?” weighing more sanctions and punitive actions against Moscow, the Russian leadership is focused on a parallel question: What’s next for Ukraine?

Whoever thought that failing to blitz Kyiv into submission would derail President Vladimir Putin from his original plan, to return the disobedient Ukraine to its natural subjugation under Russian wings, must revisit their assumptions. Over the last few days, Russia’s propaganda operation has escalated its efforts to explain the logic beyond this “special military operation.”

An op-ed published by RIA Novosti (Russia’s state-owned domestic news agency) written by Timofei Sergeitsev, a writer and a filmmaker who once used to consult for Ukraine’s pro-Russian presidents Leonid Kuchma (1999) and Victor Yanukovich (2004), offers a brutal manifesto for Russia’s plan for Ukraine: a horrifying view of an imperialist ideology that calls not only for denazification, but also for de-Ukrainization and eventually, the dismemberment of Ukraine, “brought back within its natural boundaries and stripped of political functionality.”

While Putin’s references to denazification in his last speech just days before the war were rather vague (was he referring to the Ukrainian government? To specific Ukrainian battalions, like Azov or Aydar?) Sergeitsev is both specific, and comprehensive, about whom the Nazis are and how hard Russia has to hit them.

Sergeitsev explains in his propaganda master-class that: “Denazification is necessary when a significant part of the people, very likely its majority, has been cowed by the Nazi regime and drawn into its political agenda. That is, when the hypothesis ‘the people are good – it’s the government that’s bad’ does not work.”

He describes at length, how (unlike Georgia or the Baltic states) “the modern Ukrainian nation state is a failure,” because any attempt to build such a state will lead to Nazism. “Ukrainism is an artificial anti-Russian construction that lacks any civilizational substance.”

During the last few years, Sergeitsev has written numerous op-eds about Ukraine and the danger that it presents to the Russian state and the Russian people.

He is a regular guest on the talk shows of Vladimir Soloviev, a top Putin propagandist who has made it on to the EU and U.S. sanctions list. He likes to call Ukraine “country 404,” a riff on the internet error message that appears when a link leads to a page or resource that does not exist, in order to imply that Ukraine is a fiction that doesn’t exist in real life.

And who is to decide whether Ukraine is a successful or a failed state, and thus whether it deserves a national identity, individual freedoms and sovereignty?

It’s Russia, says Sergeitsev, echoing the country’s own leaders – Putin and former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The latter said just recently that “Deep Ukrainianism, fueled by anti-Russian poison and all-consuming lies about its identity, is one big fake,” and continued: Ukraine has become “the Third Reich” and will share its fate. Sergeitsev declares that Russia will be the post-war “guardian of the Nuremberg Trials.”

According to this ideology, the soldiers who fight today against Ukrainians are not fighting against humans but against Nazis, and since a large portion of population voted for its government (called by Sergeitsev, Soloviev and others, “Bandera’s gang,” after the WWII Ukrainian nationalist who allied then broke with Hitler) it is equally infested by the Nazi bacillus.

The horrifying outcome of this logic is that the civilian population, immutable collaborators with Nazism, cannot and must not be spared, just as civilians weren’t spared during the firebombing of Dresden at the end of WWII. Putin, who served in Dresden as a KGB officer, often speaks about Dresden. He knows the story well.

After dehumanizing Ukrainians (Russia’s key propaganda goal), denying them the right to an unique identity different from a Russian one, after justifying atrocities (“the punishment must be harsh”) and glorifying repression, re-education and Ukrainian suffering (“tragedies and dramas are good for those nations seduced to become Russia’s enemy”), Sergeitsev finally explains what Russia – an imperial power tasked with “decolonizing Ukraine,” in his own words, and a state unashamed to flaunt its strength – needs to do to Ukraine next.

The only way to control Ukraine and its inherently Nazi character is to dismember it. The east of the country should be annexed by Russia, while “the Catholic regions,” western Ukraine, “will remain hostile to Russia, but it will be neutral and demilitarized, and Nazism will be banned there. The haters of Russia will go there.”

And what would “guarantee” the quietist subjugation of rump Ukraine and its compliance with Russian diktats? The “threat of an immediate continuation of the military operation,” says Sergeitsev. He also speculates whether ensuring a neutral, and neutralized, residual Ukraine may require “a permanent Russian military presence on its territory.”

No Marshall Plan for Ukraine sponsored by the West must be allowed. No process of Westernization, no return to Europe, can take place after the war. Ukraine must (in language somewhat reminiscent of the Iranian Revolution’s ideologists) “free itself from the intoxication, temptation, and dependence of the so-called European choice.”

Moscow has scripted a different future for Ukraine: To join an alternative, but as yet imaginary, axis, that Medvedev envisions as an “open Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

This manifesto of hatred, that integrates many features of fascism, resonates with the ideas and assumptions that have floated around in public discourse during the last few years in Russia. While Sergeitsev’s piece isn’t an actual Kremlin action plan, military and political, for Ukraine, it reveals much about how the ideologists and supporters of this war envisage the post-war future – a crushed, dismembered, hollowed out Ukraine lacking any political will, cultural identity, army or independence.

How long will the war in Ukraine last? How long is Russia prepared to dig in? Will the imminent, and highly resonant anniversary next month – May 9th, Victory Day over Nazi Germany – trigger further Russian military escalation beyond conventional weapons?

Timofei Sergeitsev’s op-ed leaves no room for optimism: Russia sees Ukraine as a battleground not only for tanks and missiles, but for an ideological war between Moscow and the collective West. The stakes are existential for Moscow, and therefore for the sake of victory in this war anything can (be allowed) to happen – torture, murder and even genocide.

Russia, under Putin, will not rest until it can broadcast an image of its victory over “the Nazis” and forcefully expand its sphere of influence. As long as Putin’s regime stays in power, Ukraine and Ukrainians will not be safe. It is just as doubtful whether Kyiv will even be allowed to recover.

The question is what will happen if Russia can’t achieve this goal using conventional weapon. Its propagandists aren’t shy of reminding the world that Russia always has other, even more frightful and devastating options.

The op-ed was published in Haaretz in April 2022.

הפוסט Russia’s Chilling Manifesto for Genocide in Ukraine הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, encouraged them in messages on his Telegram account.

“Uncompromising and universal fighters from the Chechen Republic overcome any difficulties on their way and move like a rapid avalanche. Mashallah! The lions of Allah! Allah Akhbar,” wrote Kadyrov, who assumed power in Chechnya after his father, Ahmet Kadyrov, was killed in a terrorist attack in 2004, largely believed to being planned and backed by Russian security forces.

Since Chechen fighters are famous for the brutality and cruelty that they displayed during past wars in Chechnya, Syria and other hotspots, many Ukrainians believe that the videos showing the bearded Chechens marching in front of their leaders were meant to demoralize and intimidate them.

“We know what the Chechens did to Russians, and also to each other, during the war in Chechnya. They are very brutal. But this is our home and we will defend it, even if Ramzan Kadyrov would personally come and fight against us,” says Nicolay Shevchuk, 28, from the city of Dnipro, told The Media Line.

However, Kadyrov, who has a mosque in the Arab-Israeli town of Abu Ghosh named after him, is not the only Chechen leader eager to fight in Ukraine, and not necessarily for the same side.

Ahmad Zakayev, a forgotten name from the 1990s who fought against the Russians during the First Chechen War, declared during an interview with the Russian-language, US funded Current Time TV, that Chechens are ready to defend Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

“Participating in foreign armed conflicts is forbidden by law and punishable by jail. It’s important to obtain a formal agreement that will allow this form of military cooperation,” Zakayev said. According to this veteran of wars with Russia, the Chechens who were already in Ukraine at the time of the invasion have participated in battles in the eastern part of the country.

kavkazr.com news agency that two battalions of local Chechens – the Sheikh Mansour Battalion and the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion – already fight in Ukraine. “They defend Kyiv against the Russian troops along with other nationalities who live in Ukraine,” Bakaev said.

On Sunday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged foreigners to head to Ukrainian embassies worldwide to sign up for an “international brigade” of volunteers to help fight invading Russian forces.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told BBC that she would support UK citizens who chose to defend Ukraine. “They are fighting, the people of Ukraine are fighting for freedom and democracy, not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe because that is what President Putin is challenging. And absolutely, if people want to support that struggle, I would support them in doing that,” Truss said.

In addition to British citizens, Americans, Germans, Poles and many others have expressed interest in joining Ukrainian forces and fighting alongside them. Meanwhile, a Croatian journalist revealed that a group of Croats is leaving for Ukraine to join hands with the Ukrainian army in defense of the country.

This is not the first time that foreign fighters have come to defend Ukraine from the Russians.

During the war in 2014, many foreign fighters joined the notorious Azov Battalion, a far-right militia with connections to neo-Nazism. According to Russian and Ukrainian sources, many volunteers who joined Azov began in far-right movements in Europe. Today, members of far-right movements in the United States and Europe are eager to join the “nazbaty” – the national battalions, such as Azov.

Anna Zharova, CEO of the Israeli Ukrainian Alliance, says that it is important to stick to the truth and avoid disinformation that is often spread by the Russian media.

“International fighters who fight for Ukraine are not something new. We also had fighters who volunteered to help Ukraine in 2014, among them many Israelis and Georgians. They worked closely with the Ukrainian army and many served as instructors. As far as I know, the majority worked with the army, not with nazbaty,” she said.

While the debate on foreign fighters heading for Ukraine is ongoing, many Israelis have expressed interest in helping Ukraine and joining the fighting. Some left their phone numbers on the web page of Ukraine’s embassy in Tel Aviv, while others asked to be contacted if a group of Israelis travels to Ukraine for that purpose. Many are concerned about the legal ramifications, however.

Nathan, who agreed to talk to The Media Line on condition of anonymity, expressed his readiness to join the fight. “I served in the IDF, in one of the elite units. I can give a lot to the Ukrainians, but I have to be certain that I will not be prosecuted for that,” he told The Media Line.

Many Palestinians online had expressed their anger regarding the possibility of Israelis joining the fight in Ukraine, blaming Zelenskyy for supporting Israel in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. In what seems to be the defining moment for Russia and Western relations in the 21st century, many in the Middle East and beyond are taking sides according to their own relationships with Russia and Ukraine, and have affiliated themselves with these countries and their people based on their own hopes, disappointments and grievances.

The op-ed was published in The Media Line in February 2022.

הפוסט Chechens Are Fighting on Both Sides of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

As American diplomats leave their offices in Kyiv, NATO soldiers deploy in the Baltic states and Israel prepares to evacuate Ukrainian Jews, it feels like war between Russia and Ukraine is just around the corner. But is another Russian-Ukrainian war truly inevitable? And what role is the media playing in heating up the already charged atmosphere?

‘Kyiv feels a lot like Tel Aviv these days’

“Personally, I’m not engaged in preparations for a war that might or might not happen. Call it a matter of superstition. Life in Kyiv goes on – the cafés are full, everything is open,”

Evgeny Kiselev, once a Russian TV star and a pioneering journalist who was not afraid to criticize the political elite, tells The Media Line. Since 2008, he has been living in Ukraine, where he presents a popular political talk show.

“In this way, Kyiv feels a lot like Tel Aviv: The Gaza Strip is just a few dozen kilometers away and the rockets launched from Gaza can explode at any moment. But people still enjoy the sun and life,” he continues.

“We do the same. At the same time, some people are worried about a possible invasion, and some are even packing – just in case. If the worst scenario comes true, they might leave Kyiv and go west, to stay with friends and relatives. However, Ukraine has seen many occupiers, but no one was able to swallow it. Even when it was a part of a Russian empire, it still succeeded to maintain its culture and identity,” Kiselev says.

Anna Zarova, CEO of the Israeli-Ukrainian Alliance (IUA), an “international company focused on the enhancement of social, business and investment relations between” the two countries, just returned to Israel from Odessa.

Zarova told The Media Line she didn’t feel any anxiety among the residents of the city. “It was as if I ended up in a parallel reality. My Israeli friends were very worried about me, but in Odessa, I didn’t see any signs of impending war.”

Dr. Evgeni Klauber, an expert on former Soviet Union countries who teaches at Tel Aviv University, points to an interesting fact. “Look at Ukrainian top military leaders. They are not in Ukraine, they are abroad – meeting and convening with foreign leaders. If they really thought that an invasion was imminent, they would rush home to be with the troops and to prepare for the war,” Klauber tells The Media Line.

The news that dependents and all nonessential US Embassy staff were evacuating Ukraine was greeted with a great deal of astonishment. “It seems that the Americans exaggerate and even inflate the situation, perhaps in order to praise themselves and President Biden later,” says Kiselev.

Klauber explains, “We do experience a great deal of exaggeration, and even fake news.”

He believes the media are creating an atmosphere of fear and hysteria instead of dealing rationally with an analysis of the situation.

The zero hour

During the last few months, experts and analysts have laid out various scenarios for a possible war, from Russia taking over additional swaths of the Donbass region in the southeast to it occupying Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and largest city.

In Ukraine, however, many believe war is not a done deal, at least not yet.

“The threat of war is worse than the war itself: In order to carry out an offensive operation of this scale, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin actually needs not 100,000, but 200,000 to 300,000 troops amassed at the border,” says Kiselev.

“For now, he is getting exactly what he wants: The West is already making bargains with him. It’s clear to all that the terms that were presented by Russia in December are a nonstarter. Therefore, all of this is being done for propaganda purposes: Russia fears for its security, and NATO is sending ammunition and planes [to Ukraine],” Kiselev adds.

According to Klauber, war in Ukraine might happen as the result of a violent dynamic in the self-proclaimed republics in the eastern part of the country, but a full-scale war or even a partial occupation of Ukraine is just not part of the Russian president’s agenda.

“Also, [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelensky knows that Putin does not intend to attack,” he continues.

“Putin wants to create pressure on Zelensky. While everyone is stressed because of the concentration of 120,000 Russian soldiers at the border, people tend to forget that just a few months ago, in September, some 250,000 [Russian] soldiers participated in a military drill in that area. There was also a similar movement of troops in March 2020. The current drill is a third of one during the last 12 months, and for the meanwhile – the smallest in volume,” Klauber says.

“I tend to believe that Putin is not interested in taking over parts of Ukraine. He simply wants it all, but without rows of tanks on Ukrainian land and hundreds of dead soldiers returning home in caskets. His goal is the miraculous revival of the Minsk agreements,” he says.

The Minsk Protocol and the Minsk II accord, which sought to end the war in Ukraine’s Donbass region, were signed in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

“Many parts of these agreements were never implemented, and the Ukrainians refused to stand by them. Now, when the threat of war has become more real, Kyiv has started speaking about implementing some parts of the agreement, and this is a considerable gain for Putin,” Klauber explains.

The world (and the Middle East) is watching

Today, as the world watches closely the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, some countries are already drawing conclusions. This may be true as regards China vis-à-vis Taiwan and even in the case of the Yemenite Houthi movement vs. the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

“Despite the war drums and the powerful language (that mainly comes from the US State Department), the West seems to be ready to cave in to Putin – each country for a different reason,” the expert continues.

“Putin is taking a risk here because war can erupt even if he is not interested in it if some of his protégées in Luhansk or Donetsk go rogue, but there is also a chance that he will be able to squeeze the Ukrainians into accepting the Minsk agreements without shooting a single bullet,” Klauber says.

The Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic are unrecognized breakaway states that were established by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

According to Zarova, while the American diplomats are packing their bags, Ukrainians are paying particular attention to what happens at the Israeli Embassy in Kyiv. “There is talk about the possible evacuation of the Jews and of the Israeli citizens who reside in Ukraine, but for now they are staying put and the embassy carries on as usual,” she says.

Zarova, who was born and raised in Ukraine, expects Israel to take a firmer position on the conflict.

“Yes, there is complexity because of the Russian presence in Syria. And yet, Israel can do a lot to help the Ukrainians. In 2014, all the aid that was provided to the Ukrainian people was the doing of volunteers and civil society organizations. Israel did very little. So if it will provide some help of this kind, there will be a positive impact,” she says.

For now, Israelis of Ukrainian origin are watching the situation on the ground closely, Zarova explains. In the event of a ground invasion they will immediately mobilize, to protest and demand that the Israeli government take a stand, she says.

For now, it seems that all sides continue to play the waiting game. It’s unclear how long this phase will last.

This article is posted on “The Media Line” on January 26, 2022

הפוסט Putin’s Ukraine Gambit Risks Starting Unintended War: Experts הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.