ארכיון Amb. (ret.) Dr. Haim Koren - Mitvim

Israel-Egypt Cooperation in 2019: Strategic Warming, Civilian Coolness?

ריף יצחקי — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 11:12:35 +0000

Since President Abdel Fatah a-Sisi’s rise to power in 2014, Israeli-Egyptian ties have been marked by defense-strategic cooperation. This is based on the shared perception of Iran and radical Islamist terror organizations as a threat, and the common interest in managing the Palestinian issue, in general, and specifically the Gaza arena. In the inherent tension between ideology and national interests, Egypt continues to strive for an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (Fatah, Hamas and the other Palestinian factions) and seeks to bring about internal Palestinian reconciliation beforehand (between the leaderships in Ramallah and Gaza). Its role as a key mediator between Hamas and Israel is crucial, and is in line with

Egypt’s international standing as an important regional leader. Egypt’s role as a mediator acceptable to all sides allows it to ensure that the “arrangements” it helps broker serve its own interests as well, including its desire to pursue cooperation with Israel on strategic issues such as security and energy. Addressing the 2019 Herzliya Conference, Egyptian Ambassador to Israel Khaled Azmi expressed his country’s key interest in preserving its stability as a nation-state in the face of regional challenges. He also emphasized the importance of providing a response to the aspirations of millions of young people in the Middle East (where 60% of the population is below the age of 30).

Israel perceives its peace with Egypt as a highly important asset. Four decades of peace have proven its resilience in the face of changes and shockwaves, and have provided a potential platform for strategic cooperation. However, relations between Israel and Egypt are characterized as a “cold peace”. Egypt is unwilling to fully normalize with Israel, despite crucial shared interests, as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved. Although this position has become somewhat muted considering the growing defense strategic cooperation between Israel and the Sunni states in the region, it still dictates the nature and extent of relations. A 2018 study that examined existing cooperation between Israel and Egypt pointed to strategic cooperation between the states, as well as cool bilateral relations on all other fronts. This article follows-up and looks at the 2019 developments in the relations.

הפוסט Israel-Egypt Cooperation in 2019: Strategic Warming, Civilian Coolness? הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Positive signs in Israel-Egypt relations

ריף יצחקי — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 15:37:01 +0000

Since President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s rise to power in 2014, Israeli-Egyptian ties have been marked by defense-strategic cooperation, based on the shared perception of Iran and radical Islamist terror organizations as a threat, and the common interest in managing the Palestinian issue, in general, and specifically the Gaza arena.

In the permanent tension between ideology and interests, Egypt continues to strive for an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and seeks to bring about internal Palestinian reconciliation beforehand. Its role as an important mediator between Hamas and Israel is crucial in ending periodic bouts of violence, is in line with Egypt’s standing as an important regional leader and is serving Egypt’s own interests as well.

Israel perceives its peace with Egypt as a highly important asset. Four decades of peace have proven that it is resistant to changes and shock waves. The peace also provides a potential platform for strategic cooperation. Relations between Israel and Egypt are characterized as a “cold peace,” an image based on the fact that as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved, Egypt is unable to progress to full normalization with Israel despite crucial shared interests. Although this position has become somewhat muted in light of the growing defense-strategic cooperation between Israel and the Sunni states in the region, it still dictates the nature and extent of relations.

Israeli-Egyptian links are an asset to the region, especially to the states of the Arab Sunni axis, as well as to the US and other powers. They regard the ties as a boost to regional stability after a period of great upheaval. Throughout 2019, Egypt was a pivotal component in ties between Israel and the Palestinians. It played a central role in all attempts at ceasefires with Hamas, which were also assisted by UN mediation and Qatari funds.

Israel and Egypt both seek to limit Iran’s presence in the Middle East, to advance increased sanctions against it by diplomatic means, and to fight its various proxies. Israel and Egypt also worked, each individually, to limit Turkey’s activity in the Eastern Mediterranean by nurturing alliances in the region. They also mounted campaigns against terror organizations, born of a joint perception of the threat they pose and the required responses. In addition, Israel and Egypt share a similar view of the US role in the region, resulting in Israeli-Egyptian coordination in some fields (such as the Qualified Industrial Zones – QIZ). Along with cooperation on the diplomatic front, 2019 also saw continued security cooperation between Israel and Egypt, which has underpinned relations between them in recent years.

Given the cooperation described above, a high-profile celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Israel-Egypt peace agreement would have been expected in 2019. However, while Israel held academic seminars and various other events, no similar events or ceremonies were conducted in Egypt. Ambassador David Govrin completed his term at the end of July 2019, and Israel currently does not have an ambassador in Cairo. The ambassador-designate’s appointment in October 2018 has not been presented for government approval.

ALONG WITH diplomatic-strategic cooperation, cooperation between Israel and Egypt on energy issues was also prominent in 2019. Significant steps were taken to promote cooperation allowing Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Greece (and perhaps Lebanon in the future) to form a regional hub of natural gas production as a basis for export to Europe. In January 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) was launched in Cairo by seven Middle Eastern and European governments, among them Israel and the Palestinian Authority (but without the participation of Turkey and Lebanon).

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz met with his Egyptian counterpart, Tariq al-Mulla, in full view of the cameras during the launch event. In January, a decision was made to upgrade the EMGF to a recognized international organization, which France asked to join too, and which will include the US, EU and World Bank as observers. Strengthening multilateral cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean helps boost Israeli-Egyptian ties.

In September, Israel’s state-owned Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company signed a contract with the owners of the Egyptian EMG gas pipeline to allow the flow of gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan and Tamar gas fields to Egypt. The deal is expected to yield the Israeli company an annual commission of NIS 200 million. In addition, a compromise was reached between the Egyptian government and the Israel Electric Corporation, according to which the Egyptians would only pay the IEC $500m. of the $1.76 billion ruled in its favor in international arbitration several years ago. That compromise removed the remaining barriers to the supply of gas from Israel to Egypt, and in January, Israel began exporting gas to Egypt from the Leviathan reservoir. None of the above would have been possible without intensive contacts between the Egyptian and Israeli governments.

Nonetheless, there were no other significant changes in Israel-Egyptian economic cooperation in 2019. The QIZ initiative continued to operate in its current format, as did agricultural projects. Unfortunately, there were no new initiatives in the spheres of solar energy, water desalination or green energy, which could have been very beneficial to the Egyptian economy. No progress was reported in scientific, medical, technological or academic cooperation, either. Nonetheless, there was an increase in the number of Israeli visitors to Egypt, with hundreds of thousands visiting the Sinai Peninsula and a few thousand touring Egypt itself. Positive developments occurred in the other direction, too – with the growth of Egyptian Copt pilgrimages to Israel, especially for the “Great Sabbath” and Easter holy days. Their numbers grew to about 7,000 in 2019 from some 5,000 in 2015.

In addition, as part of Egypt’s efforts to display more tolerant and liberal attitudes, especially toward religious minorities, among them Jews and Copts, progress was made in terms of Egypt’s commitment to refurbish Jewish heritage sites. Cairo’s Bassatine Jewish Cemetery compound was renovated in 2019 with Egyptian government funding, the Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue restoration in Alexandria was completed in January. Ambassadors from many countries were invited to the impressive synagogue ceremony, but the Israeli ambassador was not invited. The Egyptians framed the event as a Jewish rather than Israel-related occasion.

Over four decades of Israeli-Egyptian relations testify to continuity and change. The two states’ mutual interests constitute the basis for their peace, despite the obstacles, disagreements, and tensions over the years. The emerging regional and international reality (especially since Sisi’s rise to power) has increased cooperation but was not successful in thawing Egypt’s cool attitude toward the peace with Israel. A significant obstacle to the relationship continues to be Egyptian avoidance of cultural cooperation. The Mediterranean identity starting to take root in certain Egyptian and Israeli circles may generate a dialogue that will eventually yield more open cultural relations. Social media, which enable a direct and comprehensive discourse with young Egyptians, constitute another arena in which Israel operates and that holds potential for civilian rapprochement. Israel should quickly appoint a permanent ambassador to Egypt, one able to support and lead attempts to bolster ties and take advantage of existing opportunities.

The writer is Israel’s former ambassador to Egypt and South Sudan, a task-team member at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, and a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. Read a longer version of this article on the Mitvim Institute’s website.

(originally published in the Jerusalem Post)

הפוסט Positive signs in Israel-Egypt relations הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Israel and Egypt: Strategic Partnership, Civil Remoteness?

ריף יצחקי — Sat, 02 Mar 2019 07:04:31 +0000

This article describes the relationship and cooperation between Israel and Egypt, and discusses the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on them. It focuses on the current political and security cooperation between the two countries regarding the Gaza Strip, the fight against terror, the Palestinian issue, the relations with the US administration, and the regional rivalry between Arab Sunni states and Iran. The article emphasizes that when it comes to civil and economic ties between Israel and Egypt, the potential for cooperation has yet to be fulfilled. Nevertheless, there are a few signs for economic cooperation in the areas of natural gas and industry (with the enlargement of the QIZ system), and to some positive change in the public attitude of the Egyptian government towards relations with Israel. The challenges to bolstering Israel-Egypt relations include bureaucratic, economic and political security (e.g. the nuclear issue) components. Above all, however, stands the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and the perception of the Egyptian public that normalization with Israel cannot be reached prior to a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

הפוסט Israel and Egypt: Strategic Partnership, Civil Remoteness? הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Israel and Egypt: A Strategic Axis in the Regional Landscape?

ריף יצחקי — Tue, 11 Dec 2018 16:03:48 +0000

The recent violent escalation in Gaza, that led to the resignation of the Israeli minister of defense and to a public uproar against the government’s handling of the Hamas movement, have once more emphasized Egypt’s deep involvement in attempts to mediate and resolve conflicts between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors in the West bank and Gaza. Egypt’s active role is not limited to compliance with the disputants needs, but is an important component in its pro-active policy and its self-perception as a necessary mediator and negotiator that promotes regional stability.

The consequences of the “Arab Shaking” have yet to end. Each state that experienced these “winds of change”, withstands the emerging regional and international reality differently, based on the way it defines its current position. Egypt under a-Sisi, and in the post-Mursi era, has re-defined its aims and mode of action. The newly created Egyptian national security outlook prioritized two main objectives: to restore (both domestic and regional) security and to strengthen the Egyptian economy.

Regarding the security objective, as soon as Egypt defined “terrorism” (both domestic and international) as its biggest threat, it made sure to label the Muslin Brotherhood movement a terror organization and carried out severe measures against its members. Furthermore, the Egyptian authorities have occasionally accused the Hamas of carrying out terror attacks in cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood and intermittently with ISIS. No wonder that every now and then news surrounding military cooperation between Egypt and Israel battling ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula appear in the media.

In addition to this, the Iranian policy in the Middle East is perceived by Egypt as a threat (and so by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and the United Arab Emirates). Both Turkey and Qatar are considered Egypt’s consistent and uncompromising rivals, due to their support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, and based on their membership in the Middle Eastern axis opposing Egypt. A new reality has evolved that we have never seen before, in which the regional interests of Israel and Egypt, as well as those of other Arab states, have intertwined.

The long-standing Egyptian policy that strives to resolve the Palestinian issue relies, even to this day, on its ability to engage in what is happening in the Gaza strip. Egypt wishes to promote steps of reconciliation within the Palestinian wing itself (between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority), and to serve as a mediator between the Palestinians as well as between the Palestinians and Israel. All actors in this equation view Egypt as a trustworthy and influential actor. In this way, Egypt acts as the most significant mediator that negotiates understandings between Israel and Hamas, and that supports Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. Egypt is expected to continue playing such a role in the future as well.

The meeting between Israel and Egypt’s leaders that took place during the 2018 UN General Assembly, was not the first meeting between Netanyahu and a-Sisi this past year. Among the issues discussed by the two leaders were the situation in Gaza, the Palestinian issue, security matters, regional developments and bilateral issues. The meeting reflected rather accurately the cooperative relations between the two countries over the past four years.

The second objective put forward by the Egyptian leadership has been to stabilize the economy. A strong sense of security and a steady economy may turn Egypt into a source for regional stability. This leads Egypt to be increasingly interested in promoting economic and trade cooperation with Israel. Egypt hold an important strategic location, on the maritime route from the Indian ocean through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and toward the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, the interest in Egypt’s stabilization is not limited to regional actors alone, but is also eminent for the US, the EU, Russia, India, and China. This generates international interest in supporting Israeli-Egyptian cooperation as a keystone for enhancing regional stability.

Broader cooperation between Israel and Egypt in the security and-political spheres may stimulate their economic relations and therefore work for the benefit of both countries. Nevertheless, there is still a significant gap between the high level of strategic cooperation between Israel and Egypt, and their much lower level of civil cooperation. The number of Israelis touring Egypt is stable but rather low. Trade between the countries is taking place but to a limited extent, and the same is true regarding the field of agriculture, where there is far greater potential for cooperation than what is taking place today (at least in comparison to cooperation in the 1990’s). In addition to that, there is potential for Egypt to utilize technologies such as solar energy and water desalination, areas of which are widely known as Israel’s field of expertise, both as a manufacturer and as an implementer.

The field of energy, and in particular the production and marketing of natural gas, plays a central role in the Israeli-Egyptian economic and trade cooperation. Moreover, both countries can cooperate in traditional industry fields, in unique qualified industrial zones (QIZ, a three-way agreement that allows the export of free trade Egyptian goods to the US, in the condition they hold a certain percent of Israeli components), in agriculture, tourism and more. Such cooperation can promote both Israel’s and Egypt’s economies, and have a positive economic impact on the broader region.

The announcement made by the Israeli company “Delek Drilling” that it will purchase (together with the Noble Energy and East Gas companies) the Egyptian EMG company is a step towards achieving these goals. The natural gas pipeline owned by EMG connects Israel and Egypt, and will deliver natural gas from the “Tamar” and “Leviathan” reservoirs to Egypt. This is considered to be a milestone in transforming Egypt into a regional energy hub, as a major importer and as an exporter based on its liquefying gas facilities. According to Israel’s Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz, the rehabilitation of the Israeli-Egyptian natural gas pipeline, along with the construction of a Jordanian-Israeli pipeline, creates a regional foundation between the “peace countries”. It is rare to have a joint infrastructure project with geo-political significance take shape between Israel and its neighbors.

The positive nature of Israel-Egypt ties in recent years, together with evolving regional developments in the Middle East, Egypt’s role in mediating between Israel and the Palestinians, and the steps taken by Egypt to thaw the “cold” peace with Israel, may all point to the existence of an opportunity for further advancement in ties between two strategic partners in the region – Egypt and Israel.

Dr. Haim Koren, a task-team member at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, served as the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt between the years 2014 and 2016. This article is based on a research on Israel-Egypt relations, written as part of Mitvim Institute’s project on the unfulfilled potential of Israel’s relations with Arab countries.

(originally published in the Jerusalem Post)

הפוסט Israel and Egypt: A Strategic Axis in the Regional Landscape? הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.