ארכיון Dr. Michal Yaari - Mitvim

Gaza Helps Israel and Qatar Find Common Ground

ריף יצחקי — Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:30:11 +0000

According to Israeli media reports, the heads of the Mossad and of the IDF’s southern command secretly visited Qatar in early February. The visit validates comments made to me by a Qatari senior that is closely associated with the government whom I met on my visit there in 2018. The Qatari described the excellent relations between highly regarded figures in Israel and Qatar, and emphasized the successful cooperation between the two countries.

These events point to a change in Israel-Qatar relations, from mutual hostility to unusual cooperation. In recent decades, Qatar was an inciting agent that threatened to destabilize Arab regimes whose survival Israel sought to ensure. Qatar led a confrontational line encouraging extremism and supporting jihadist activity, nurturing ties with the Muslim Brotherhood. As well as being close to Turkey, Qatar supplied broad economic infrastructure for Hamas and conducted economic relations with Iran, positioning it alongside Israel’s biggest enemies.

However, the turbulent reality in the Middle East challenged the rivalry between Israel and Qatar and prompted a fundamental change in their relationship. Gaza required extensive and comprehensive rehabilitation following the destruction and devastation resulting from Operation Protective Edge in 2014, a time in which Arab states were refusing to provide financial support to the Hamas leadership. Officials in Jerusalem realized that the chaotic situation in Gaza was a powder keg, which, if not properly addressed, could result in an additional round of fighting with Hamas. In that sense, Israel found an ally in Qatar, which offered over one billion dollars in humanitarian aid for Gaza. Qatar viewed the investment in Gaza as a moral and ideological commitment as well as an opportunity to assume a key mediating role between Gaza and Israel, especially since the traditional mediators in this arena, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, were hostile to Qatar, and were lowering their profile and focusing on their domestic affairs.

Qatar thus underscored and strengthened its regional standing, as well as tightening relations with the US administration. Israel would have undoubtedly preferred Saudi or Egyptian aid, but lacking other alternatives, the scene was set for unusual and rare cooperation between the two states based on a common interest. Israel also assumed that absent the Qatari alternative, Hamas would tighten its relations with Iran in an effort to obtain additional funding.

Israel is well aware that Qatar cannot bring about a diplomatic breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because of its limited power and influence, but that does not negate its importance as a key player in mediation between Israel and Hamas. The mediation undertaken by Qatar’s envoy to Gaza Mohammed al-Emadi, alongside the contributions of Egypt and of the UN’s envoy Mladenov, were instrumental in postponing further bouts of violence, even at times when Israel seemed to no longer be willing to adopt restraint.

The mutual understanding over Gaza created a unique situation. While there is no solution on the horizon for the Palestinian problem, the Israel-Qatar dialogue is breaking through previous barriers and redefining relations. However, these are functional, relations aimed at achieving calm in Gaza by means of economic and humanitarian aid. The Qatari position has traditionally been, and continues to be pro-Palestinian. In other words, it demands full Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and supports the right of the Palestinian people to their own state. As a result, as long as no progress is made on the Palestinian issue, relations between Doha and Jerusalem will remain limited in quality and extent, despite their promising potential.

To sum up, there is still a long way ahead until official diplomatic recognition between the states is reached, but that does not cancel out the shift in their relations. In just a few years, Israel and Qatar relations has evolved from enmity to strategic partnership regarding the Gaza Strip. This does not mean Qatar has abandoned its historic ties with Israel’s enemies, but its view of the Palestinian issue is no longer based on binary concepts of assailant and victim, but rather on recognition of the joint responsibility of the various elements for the Gaza crisis.

The Israeli leadership will presumably keep harboring suspicions of Qatar in years to come. However, unlike the past, this suspicion does not rule out relations with Qatar, it simply delineates them. While Qatar is not a natural Israeli ally, its great interest in Israeli science and technology could serve as the basis for extensive future cooperation in additional fields.

Dr. Michal Yaari is an expert on the Gulf states at Haifa University and the Open University, and a task team member at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. This article is based on a research she wrote at the Mitvim Institute on Israel-Qatar relations.

(originally published in the Jerusalem Post)

הפוסט Gaza Helps Israel and Qatar Find Common Ground הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue

ריף יצחקי — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 11:09:42 +0000

This article focuses on relations between Israel and Qatar, analyzing them in historical context, in the context of Qatari foreign policy and in terms of their potential and the limitations imposed by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The article describes the shift from a mutual conception of hostility to unusual cooperation over the Gaza crisis. While Israel aspires to avoid additional rounds of violence with Gaza, Qatar seeks to strengthen its regional role as a mediator, and mutual interests converge into joint activity to avert an additional military clash between Hamas and Israel. The cooperation between the states illustrates how the Palestinian issue can leverage regional cooperation. At the same time, the untapped diplomatic, economic and civilian potential of Israel-Qatar relations points to the limitations imposed by the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

הפוסט Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Qatar’s friendship is good for Israel

ריף יצחקי — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 15:42:07 +0000

The leak of a secret visit to Doha by Mossad Director Yossi Cohen and GOC Southern Command Maj. Gen. Herzi Levi last month to pressure Qatar to keep funding Hamas in Gaza confirmed what Qatari and Israeli officials have been claiming: There is a dramatic change in the nature of relations between the two countries.

In past decades, Qatar was seen as a threat to Israel and instigator of instability in the region due to its support of jihadist movements such as the Egyptian-based Muslim Brotherhood.

In addition to forging close ties with Turkey, the Gulf state has also provided Gaza rulers Hamas with economic assistance and brokered Iranian financial aid to the terror group, positioning it alongside Israel’s worst enemies.

But Mideast politics they are a-changin’ and old enemies are taking a new look at their ties to Israel.

After the 2014 Gaza war and the destruction caused to the enclave, a massive rehabilitation effort had to be implemented, but many of the Arab countries – including Egypt and Saudi Arabia – shied away from assisting Hamas and turned their attention to domestic challenges.

The government in Jerusalem, having realized that a humanitarian crisis in Gaza posed a threat to Israel and could trigger another war, found an ally

in Qatar, which offered more than 1 billion dollars in aid to the besieged enclave.

The Qatari rulers saw an opportunity to assume a crucial mediation role between Israel and Hamas and as a result enjoyed a marked strengthening of ties with the United States.

Jerusalem, though reluctant at first, agreed to cooperate with Qatar primarily to keep Iran from tightening its grip on the Gaza factions.

And it is Doha’s actions, coupled with mediation efforts by Egypt and the UN special Mideast envoy Nikolay Mladenov, that have prevented more rounds of violence between the two sides.

Even so, the road to better relations between Israel and Qatar is a long one.

The emirate has not changed its position on the Palestinian right to an independent viable state that would see an end to Israeli control of the West Bank, and the likelihood that full diplomatic ties can be instated remains questionable.

But geopolitics have pushed religion and ideology aside, resulting in an unexpected strategic partnership between the two nations in the service of pragmatic interests.

Qatar now views the question of Gaza in non-binary terms and accepts that the responsibility for the suffering of Palestinians lies with all parties.

Israel remains suspicious of Qatar’s motives and behavior, but still find the way to cooperate with it within defined parameters.

Doha has shown an interest in Israeli science and technology and that too could become the basis of future cooperation.

The definition of good and bad actors in the Middle East is now in flux, which opens a window of opportunity for Israel.

Dr. Michal Yaari is an expert on Saudi Arabia at the Ben Gurion University and a contributing member of the think tank Mitvim – an institute for regional foreign policies

(originally published on YNet)

הפוסט Qatar’s friendship is good for Israel הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Israel and Saudi Arabia: On the Way to Normalization?

ריף יצחקי — Sun, 01 Jul 2018 10:18:19 +0000

The tectonic changes in the Middle East since 2011 have created the foundation for a significant rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Alongside their strategic security partnership, cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia engenders enormous potential on the political and economic level. Official diplomatic relations between the two countries will reflect on the stability of the region and will also help advance the peace and reconciliation processes with the Palestinians. Economic cooperation including water, technology, energy, and tourism agreements would bring significant benefits to both countries, and certainly to the Israeli economy. These benefits notwithstanding, normalization between the two countries is not expected before the Palestinian demands are met, or at least until there is a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. The reasoning behind this is Saudi Arabia’s historical commitment to advancing the solution of the Palestinian problem. As a result, the Saudi regime prefers in the meantime to follow the path of quiet diplomacy in order to advance national-strategic goals, rather than publicizing its relations with Israel.

הפוסט Israel and Saudi Arabia: On the Way to Normalization? הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

Israel and Saudi Arabia: From Foes to Potential Friends

ריף יצחקי — Sun, 03 Jun 2018 12:30:43 +0000

The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, is fed up with the Palestinian leadership. “Over the past 40 years, the Palestinian leadership has repeatedly missed opportunities and rejected all proposals”, he said during a meeting with several Jewish leaders in late March. “It is time for the Palestinians to accept the proposals […] or to remain silent and stop complaining”.

This was not the first time that Saudi officials had harshly criticized the Palestinian leadership for consistently missing historic opportunities to resolve the conflict, but until now they have not done it publicly. The contacts between Riyadh and Jerusalem are perceived by part of the Saudi public as a betrayal of the Palestinian interest, which plays into the hands of the regime’s opponents. Therefore, the royal family should prove that it is not abandoning the Palestinian struggle in favor of normalization with Israel.

The Palestinian issue has never been at the top of the Saudi agenda, but it has been and continues to be, a restraining factor in Saudi Arabia’s attitude towards Israel. Historically, there have been moments in which the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia coincided, but they have never materialized into a dramatic change in the bilateral relations. The reason was the Saudi regime’s fear of harsh reactions on the part of the Arab world, which would undermine its public image and its religious status as the guardian of the holy sites of Islam.

However lately, as the Iranian threat increases, Israel has become a potential ally for Saudi Arabia. Not only do the two countries share the same view of the need to root out radical elements and stabilize the Middle East, but Israel is the only country in the world with the military intentions and capabilities required to fight common enemies. Over the years, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on its strategic alliance with the United States, but in recent years the American administration’s willingness to intervene in the Middle East’s bloody conflicts has diminished, and Saudi Arabia has virtually remained without a tailwind to effectively curb Iran’s influence. In such circumstances, Israel has become a major player in changing the regional balance of power. Beyond its intelligence and strategic capabilities, Israel serves as an economic model for Saudi Arabia. As the Saudi economy is undergoing a revolution from being an oil-based economy to a productive and advanced economy, Israel’s knowledge and technology has become increasingly attractive.

The hidden potential in normalized Israeli-Saudi relations is enormous. On the strategic level, the bi-lateral relations are not symmetrical in view of Israel’s clear military superiority, but it does not diminish their importance. Saudi Arabia’s strategic position in the Arab world could help Israel fight Iran and strengthen the security cooperation with other Arab countries. Nevertheless, Israel’s fear of advanced arms deals between Saudi Arabia and the United States and the possibility of developing Saudi nuclear weapons in response to Iranian nuclear weapons, should not be dismissed. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia could take advantage of Israeli intelligence on Iran and its Middle Eastern affiliates, as well as its defense systems (such as Iron Dome) and its advanced capabilities against Cyber-attacks.

At the diplomatic level, Israeli-Saudi cooperation can help mitigate explosive incidents, such as riots on the Temple Mount. In addition, it will pave the way for the promotion of economic, energy and agricultural projects between Israel and the Arab countries, which presently hardly exist at present. Already, the royal family is exerting pressure to convince the Palestinian leadership to be more flexible with their demands from Israel. Unlike the past, Saudi Arabia has withdrawn from its demand for a just solution to the Palestinian issue and is now talking about a logical solution. Thus, for example, the Saudis no longer support the Palestinian demand for the right of return, rather they seek a solution that will be acceptable to Israel as well. In addition, it does not condition the normalization of its relations with Israel on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict and is willing to settle for a breakthrough in negotiations. As far as Israel is concerned, if Israel makes gestures, such as freezing settlements or removing (even partially) the closure on Gaza, that signal to the Arab world that it is willing to negotiate, Saudi Arabia will possibly reward Israel with more gestures.

At the economic level, if the regime removes the economic barriers and allows Israeli merchandise and labor to integrate into the Saudi economy, it will make a huge contribution to the Israeli economy, especially if other Arab countries open their gates to Israeli produce.

Saudi Arabia and Israel are interested in normalizing their relations. This is indisputable. However, despite the mutual will, it is still a long and winding road towards that goal. At this point in time, there is a chance that Saudi Arabia may succeed in bringing the Palestinian leadership to the negotiating table, but it cannot force it to sign a document in which the Palestinians waive their historical demands on Israel. Israel, on its part, does not show willingness to meet the Saudi threshold requirements. With the current coalition, any Israeli gesture toward the Palestinians would be seen as deviating from the ideological positions of the government.

As things stand now, the Israeli and Palestinian leadership are unable to bridge the gap between their positions, despite the American and Arab pressure. Therefore, the chances of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia are unclear. While there has been a dramatic change in the Saudi discourse toward Israel lately, it is doubtful whether the conditions for the Saudi leadership to leap over the Palestinian hurdle are ripe for normalization with the Zionist enemy.

Israel must do its best not to miss the unique window of opportunity that has opened in its relations with Saudi Arabia. Opportunities are deceptive and transient in the Middle East, therefore the common interests between Israel and Saudi Arabia may fade if the current circumstances change. Perhaps the greatest challenge facing the Israeli government is to restore its credibility in the eyes of the Saudi leadership. Normalization with Saudi Arabia will not be given for free. It has its price. The question is whether Israel is willing to pay it. The worst thing that the Israeli prime minister could do is to instill in the Saudis the feeling that he is ready to make concessions, and then to retract his statement. Saudi Arabia has been disappointed with the Israeli leadership in the past. It must not happen again.

Dr. Michal Yaari is an expert on Saudi Arabia from Tel Aviv University and the Open University and is a member of a task team at the Mitvim Institute. This article is based on a research about Israel-Saudi Arabia relations, which was written as part of a Mitvim Institute project on “Israel’s relations with the Arab countries: The unfulfilled potential”.

(originally published in Ynetnews)

הפוסט Israel and Saudi Arabia: From Foes to Potential Friends הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.

The Egypt-Saudi Agreements: Policy Analysis and Regional Implications

ריף יצחקי — Sat, 23 Apr 2016 18:03:30 +0000

The first visit by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to Egypt has led to the signing of significant agreement between the two countries. The visit and its consequences signal a new phase in the relations between two of the Middle East’s most important countries, building upon the historic alliance between them. Closer ties between Egypt and Saudi Arabia will have regional implications, which will also impact Israel. This document includes commentaries written for the Mitvim Institute by various experts examining different aspects of the evolving Egypt-Saudi relationship: Prof. Elie Podeh, Dr. Ehud EIran and Dr. Aviad Rubin, Khader Sawaed, and Dr. Michal Yaari.

הפוסט The Egypt-Saudi Agreements: Policy Analysis and Regional Implications הופיע לראשונה ב-Mitvim.