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The Israeli public views the strikes against the Ayatollah regime through a tactical lens: who was assassinated, which military capabilities were disabled, and when the Iranian missile stockpile will be depleted. However, Iran has also sustained severe damage to its gas and oil infrastructure, and in response, it has attacked energy facilities throughout the entire region. The catastrophic environmental and health consequences will be felt far beyond the borders of the Middle East.
A New Front in Infrastructure Warfare
On June 14, 2025, as part of Operation “Rising Lion”, Israel attacked the central fuel terminal in northern Tehran. Two days later, the Iranians struck the refineries in Haifa. In Operation “Lion’s Roar” on March 18 of this year, Israel attacked Iran’s largest gas facility in Bushehr. The following day, the Iranians again hit the Haifa refineries. One could call this proximity coincidental, but it is more likely that these events are deeply interconnected.
Energy infrastructure and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf have become primary targets in regional conflicts over the last decade, with the Iranian axis – either directly or through the Houthis – acting as the dominant player. It was the Iranians who, following Israeli-American strikes, attacked neighboring countries and set the region ablaze. What is new in the current operations is that attacking Iranian energy infrastructure exposes Israel to a dangerous “tit-for-tat” retaliation.
According to an estimate published on March 11 in the New York Times, approximately 40 energy facilities have been damaged in Operation “Lion’s Roar”. Alongside the military significance of these strikes, they carry a profound environmental and health signature. We can learn about its nature from precedents over recent decades.
Historical Precedents of Ecological Disaster
Throughout the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, each side targeted the other’s oil facilities. This resulted in massive oil spills that contaminated the Persian Gulf and its coastlines, causing long-term ecological damage.
In the first Gulf War (1991), Iraqi forces set fire to about 700 oil wells in Kuwait. These burned for months, emitting thick black smoke that covered vast areas and affected air quality both regionally and globally. Half a million tons of pollutants were released into the atmosphere daily. Concurrently, 1.5 million tons of oil spilled into the Persian Gulf – a catastrophe that destroyed over 90% of the area’s fauna and flora.
The consequences included soil and water pollution, “black rain,” and a spike in pulmonary diseases. The iconic media image of that era was the cormorant seabirds covered in oil, dying in masses due to human actions. Pollutants from these fires were even discovered in remote areas like the Himalayan glaciers, where soot deposits increased solar radiation absorption and accelerated snow and ice melt. Restoration took years and required immense financial resources.
In July 2006, during the Second Lebanon War, Israeli airstrikes on the Jiyeh power plant south of Beirut caused tens of thousands of tons of fuel to leak into the Mediterranean. Over 100 kilometers of Lebanese coastline were contaminated, and the pollution reached as far north as Syria. This devastated fish breeding sites and sea turtle nesting grounds, while crippling tourism. The ecological impact lasted a decade, with cleanup costs estimated at $500 million.
During the Syrian Civil War in the previous decade, a US-led international coalition attacked 12 refineries operated by ISIS. This led to soil and groundwater contamination with toxic heavy oil, and prolonged fires that released various pollutants and heavy metals. One consequence was the shift to fuel production in makeshift, “pirate” facilities located within population centers, further damaging residents’ health.
In the current war in Ukraine, which began with the Russian invasion in 2022, attacks on Ukrainian refineries led to the burning of massive fuel storage tanks and the leakage of hundreds of millions of tons of oil and pollutants. The consequences include damage to rivers, water systems, and agricultural lands, as well as public health risks. Economic damage is estimated in the billions. The Russian invasion also affected the environment on a global scale: in the first year alone, 150 million tons of CO2 were emitted, primarily due to military fossil fuel use and infrastructure attacks, accelerating the climate crisis.
The Social Cost of Destroying Energy Infrastructure
The economic consequences of the war in Iran dominate public discourse. We have all witnessed the surge in oil and gas prices, translating into higher costs for shipping, maritime insurance, electricity, water, and consumer goods, not to mention the blow to GDP and heavy war expenditures.
To this, we must add the long-term impact on the Gulf’s gas liquefaction capacity, which will hinder the ability of Europeans and others to heat their homes during cold winters and burden global industry. However, the environmental and humanitarian consequences are barely discussed, despite their immediate impact on the health of regional residents and people around the world.
Drinking Water: Most Gulf states rely on desalination plants. These plants primarily run on gas, which is scarce due to war. They also rely on clean seawater, so an oil spill could disable them for extended periods. There is also the direct risk of Iran targeting “soft” targets like desalination plants; one facility in Bahrain has already been attacked.
Fertilizers and Food: The loss of Gulf oil and gas production affects global derivatives like diesel, jet fuel, and LPG, which is used for cooking and heating. Crucially, it impacts fertilizers, which are essential for food production and rely on natural gas as both a raw material and an energy source. Nearly a third of global fertilizer exports are currently trapped in the Gulf due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is expected to drive global food prices inflation.
Electricity, Medicine, and Cooling: With 80% of Iran’s electricity based on natural gas, strikes on gas infrastructure threaten the power grid used for medical needs, air conditioning, and food preservation. Furthermore, gas facilities already bombed by Israel provide exports to Iraq and Turkey, widening the circle of affected civilians.
Global Hunger: The UN has warned that the war in Iran could push global hunger to record levels. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that if the war continues until June, an additional 45 million people could suffer from acute hunger, adding to the 319 million already affected worldwide. This will disproportionately hit vulnerable populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Medical Equipment and Computing: Qatar’s LNG sector is also a major source of helium. Suspending production impacts the global supply of helium, which is essential for MRI machines, semiconductor manufacturing, and aerospace technology.
The Impact on the Iranian Public and Regime Stability
Generating heavy air pollution near the homes of Iranian citizens is a harmful and unnecessary act. Attacking gas and oil facilities hurts the Iranian public – the very people Israel supposedly wishes to encourage to overthrow the regime. This is a logical contradiction.
Trita Parsi, an expert on Iranian affairs, noted that attacking infrastructure often fails to weaken a regime’s oppressive capabilities (like the IRGC) and instead harms the nation as a whole. When citizens in Tehran “simply cannot breathe” due to pollution, they may flee the capital, but such suffering often reinforces the regime’s grip rather than weakening it.
The official Israeli claim regarding the Tehran refinery strike is that specific military-serving tanks were targeted. However, in the IRGC-controlled Iranian economy, the line between military and civilian use is non-existent. Furthermore, these attacks could lead to retaliation against Israel’s energy infrastructure, including gas rigs, power stations, and refineries.
Another potential target is the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline, through which Israel imports 46% of its oil. Recent Iranian drone and missile strikes in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan enclave suggest this is not a far-fetched scenario. Did we consider these outcomes when choosing to strike energy targets in Iran?
Conclusion and Recommendations
In my opinion, escalating actions against the Iranian energy sector will not bring down the regime. Instead, it will only increase Iranian animosity toward Israel and lead to painful retaliation.
Amer Shobaki, an economist and expert on oil and energy issues, is preparing the region for a scenario of electricity and energy shortages: “Governments and peoples of the countries in the region must prepare for the worst and take urgent steps to ensure the continuity of electricity supply, which requires reducing working hours, closing shops, malls and cafes after 10:00 PM, and implementing distance education in universities and schools, as a precautionary measure to maintain stability.”
To mitigate these risks, we must look toward regional connectivity. A recent report by the Mitvim Institute, co-authored by Bar Rappaport and myself, recommends connecting Israel’s electricity grid with those of Jordan and Egypt, alongside the planned connection to Cyprus. European and Central American experiences demonstrate the benefits of such connectivity in terms of grid stability and lower costs. The Gulf states have already begun expanding their grid connections toward Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt. Given the current regional security situation, it is imperative that Israel joins this trend.
