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Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies – held a roundtable on international involvement in achieving a sustainable solution for Lebanon, especially in light of the recent escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. The discussion, conducted under the Chatham House Rule, was based on several key assumptions:
1. Hezbollah’s Continued Influence: Despite recent setbacks, Hezbollah will remain a significant player in Lebanon, and international involvement will be essential to resolving the situation.
2. Military Action Alone is Insufficient: No military action can achieve the political settlement needed for both Israel’s security and the rehabilitation of Lebanon.
3. The role of the International Community: The US, France, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States must play a central role in a settlement, while also considering Iran’s influence.
4. Failures of Previous Initiatives: Past international attempts to stabilize Lebanon, including UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701, have largely failed.
Key Discussion Points:
1. Israel’s Security vs. Lebanese Sovereignty: Any sustainable solution must balance Israel’s security needs with respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty. Israel should not seek to directly influence Lebanese politics but support reforms with international backing.
2. Rehabilitation of Lebanon: Lebanon’s political crisis and the need for reforms, including the election of a president and strengthening of state institutions, are critical to creating a stable Lebanon. Strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is key to diminishing Hezbollah’s influence.
3. Weakening Hezbollah’s Dominance: Addressing the political, security, and social factors that allow Hezbollah to maintain power in Lebanon is crucial. This includes diplomatic efforts to reduce Iran’s role and a robust arms embargo.
4. The role of the International Community: The US, France, and Arab Gulf States must be involved in the process. France’s engagement with all parties, including Hezbollah, is seen as vital. Iran’s influence remains a major challenge, and the international community must work together to mitigate it.
5. UN and International Forces: A stronger role for the UN and a reformed UNIFIL, along with enhanced support for the LAF, is necessary for stabilizing Lebanon. Israel’s skepticism toward the UN complicates this effort.
6. Marshall Plan for Lebanon: A comprehensive international aid package, similar to a Marshall Plan, could help stabilize Lebanon economically and politically. However, international disagreements, particularly with Iran and Russia, pose significant challenges.
7. Challenges: There is no clear agenda-setter for future peace efforts, and determining which international instruments will be effective remains uncertain. The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict further complicates efforts to stabilize Lebanon, as tensions between these two powers will continue to affect the situation.
Conclusion:
Achieving a sustainable resolution for Lebanon requires careful coordination between international actors, consideration of Israel’s security, and respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty. Addressing Hezbollah’s role, rehabilitating Lebanon’s institutions, and securing long-term international support are all essential components for peace and stability. However, the influence of external actors like Iran and the historical failures of past efforts create significant hurdles to success.
