Iran at the threshold, Israel outside the room

Sharon Dolev October 2026
Iran at the threshold, Israel outside the room All Publications / Israel-Iran War

One justification for war with Iran was that time was running out. Tehran, Israelis were told, was “racing” toward nuclear weapons, “a step away” from a bomb.

Yet Iran has been near the nuclear threshold for years. Its distance from a weapon has never depended solely on centrifuges, enriched uranium, or the time needed to produce fissile material. US intelligence assessed that Tehran had acquired capabilities bringing it close to the threshold but had not decided to cross it. A crucial barrier was political.

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