Policy papers and recommendations
/ Gaza
The US twenty-point peace plan that marked the end of Gaza War created an opportunity to break the political stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advance major moves. Yet, progress on some of the most critical areas of security and stability is proceeding slowly. There has been some progress like the return of all the hostages, alive and dead, and the establishment of the National Committee for Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and the partial opening of Rafah crossing with the return of an EU assistance mission. However, in today’s reality, absent a concerted effort, the chance for a broader, more immediate and meaningful change in Gaza that could lead to a broader diplomatic initiative is gradually receding. As a result, the danger is that the “yellow line” will become the new border and that the situation in Gaza where the IDF controls over fifty percent of the Strip while Hamas continues to rule over the majority of the Gazan population, will continue. This would leave the population dependent on basic humanitarian aid and exploited by a reconstituting Hamas looking forward to another war while Israel attempts a return to a strategy of conflict management.
At the center of the UN resolution was the creation of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza whose role it was to oversee the disarmament and demilitarization of the territory and create the security environment to allow for reconstruction and an alternative Palestinian Government. Such a force would need to be both robust and capable with a mandate to disarm and demilitarize the territory, protect reconstruction and governance efforts, and in possession of the authorities to complete the mission against any opposition. At this point, it looks increasingly less likely the ISF, if it deploys, will resemble this ideal, and in the meantime, Hamas is entrenching its power, repositioning it capabilities, and rearming. This begs the question as to whether there is still a way for an ISF and therefore the Twenty Point Peace Plan to succeed. While all hope may not be lost without a robust ISF, the path to success will be narrow and rely instead upon an indirect approach.
