Policy papers and recommendations
/ Gaza Rehabilitation
The reconstruction process of the Gaza Strip, whose cost is estimated at approximately $70 billion, is not limited to a purely humanitarian response but constitutes a strategic decision point for building a governing alternative to Hamas, which may reshape the entire Palestinian arena. At the center of this move stands the technocratic committee (NCAG), operating under the authority of the “Board of Peace” defined in the 20-Point Plan and approved by UN Security Council Resolution 2803, whose purpose is to stabilize governance in Gaza while creating a horizon for a future transfer of authority to a reformed Palestinian Authority and connecting the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the committee’s potential success may positively affect the entire Palestinian arena and regional dynamics, at the geopolitical level the committee is expected to face a range of challenges, including:
• Tension with the Palestinian Authority, which is in a “strategic trap” – the committee’s success may highlight Ramallah’s lack of relevance, while its failure will prevent the Authority’s future return to Gaza;
• Israeli control over crossings and the security space (the “yellow line”) creates territorial ambiguity that complicates the establishment of
independent Palestinian sovereignty and delays the flow of international resources;
• Hamas will seek to replicate the “Hezbollah model,” in which it maintains its military strength under the cover of civilian calm.
The reconstruction process should serve as a tool to weaken Hamas’s power centers by creating economic and diplomatic dependence of the population on the West and Gulf states, while attempting to transform Gaza from a “resistance enclave” that threatens Israel into a functioning political entity integrated into the vision of regional stability. This document analyzes the expected scenarios in the Gaza Strip and the anticipated challenges for the technocratic committee’s activity and proposes principles for action and concrete and immediate recommendations for the technocratic committee and the international community.
