The Israeli Foreign Policy Index of 2024

The Mitvim Institute’s twelfth annual public opinion poll on Israeli foreign policy was conducted at the end of August. The survey was conducted by the Rafi Smith Institute in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, among a representative sample of the adult population in Israel (862 men and women, Jews and Arabs) and with a sampling error of 3.3%. Almost a year after the October 7th attack, the survey aimed to assess the public’s views on key issues concerning Israel’s foreign policy and strategy. It focused on immediate topics such as war objectives and potential exit strategies, while also exploring how the war has shaped the public’s strategic mindset on foreign policy issues. This document presents the findings of the survey, divided into five areas: Israel’s foreign relations, Israeli foreign policy, Israel and the Palestinians, Israel-United States relations, and Israel’s relations with regional actors. This year the survey included, among other things, questions about the preferred outcome of the fighting in Gaza; Israel-US relations and the upcoming presidential elections; Israel’s policy towards Hezbollah in the short term, and towards Iran in the long term; Israel’s global status following the war and the danger of becoming a “pariah state”; the future of strategic relations with Egypt; Israel’s relation with the UN and international sanctions on violent settlers; The connection between the campaign against Iran and the conflict with the Palestinians; Israel’s role in the global struggle between the US, China and Russia; the humanitarian crisis in Gaza; and the future of

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Exaggerations, Obstacles and Opportunities: The Saudi Arabian Position in the Gaza War

The paper aims to shed light on the obstacles and opportunities of Saudi involvement in a future Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It first explains the enigmatic nature of Saudi communication towards Israel and explains why Saudi pragmatism has been misunderstood. The paper also explains the rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel, and that Saudi-Israeli normalization is treated as a gateway to a larger game-changing strategic treaty with the United States, rather than a keenness to cooperate with Israel itself. In addition, the paper argues that while the Saudi ruling elite are willing to play financial and security roles in “reconstructing” Gaza, it is unforeseeable that this will ensue without a credible peace process that can justify these efforts, especially against the backdrop of Saudi Arabia’s restructuring of its own economy. The paper then explains the ways in which Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states, and European states can help cooperate in areas such as building a Palestinian economic horizon that can strengthen the Palestinian-Israeli political framework; developing Palestinian-Israeli green cooperation; and developing an Arab-Israeli network of academics, experts, and journalists that can be an intersection of top-down and bottom-up projects that aim to reach a two-state solution. This publication was written as part of an extensive joint research project with PAX for Peace – Netherlands and SWP Germany titled, “Defining a Role for Europe in Leveraging Israeli-Arab Normalization Towards Israeli-Palestinian Peace”. The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Mitvim Institute, SWP and PAX.

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The EU’s Possible Role in the ‘Day After’ the Gaza War according to a Reverse Engineering Roadmap

The paper outlines the existing and potential role of the EU in helping to shape a sustainable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the aftermath of the Gaza war under new Israeli government. It builds on the three stages and sequence of “The Israeli Initiative,” a detailed roadmap to establish a demilitarized de-radicalized Palestinian state and promote long-term security for both Israel and Palestine. The paper emphasizes the EU’s possible transition from being mainly a financial supporter (“payer”) to an influential participant (“player”) in the resolution of this conflict. Key points: 1. The Gaza war reignited the Two-State Solution, with the US, EU, and Arab countries working together to achieve it through a “reverse engineering” approach. 2. The EU’s potential role is outlined in three stages of “The Israeli Initiative”: Political Horizon: Establish a political vision and international monitoring forum. Transitional Phase (peace-building): Demilitarize the Palestinian state, rebuild Gaza, hold elections, and begin regional projects. Negotiation (peace-making): Final negotiations for Palestinian statehood and normalizing Israel-Arab relations. The paper highlights the importance of the EU’s role in maintaining the viability of the Two-State Solution in the West Bank. In the short term, the EU should provide humanitarian aid, counter annexation efforts in the West Bank, stabilize the Palestinian Authority (PA), and address Iranian proxies. Its influence depends on trust-building with both sides and leveraging its status as both a financial and political player. The conclusion calls on the EU to prepare for post-war diplomatic and economic opportunities, with a focus on

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Humanitarian Strategy in the Israel-Hamas War

The document discusses the significance of developing a strategic policy for the humanitarian response in Gaza, emphasizing its importance as a vital Israeli interest. Humanitarian strategy is overall management of the humanitarian issue while maintaining a long-term vision and partnership with other players in the field, based on the humanitarian knowledge and experience from around the world, in order to satisfy the basic needs of life in the region and as an integral part of the efforts to achieve a stability and security. First, this document presents the principles of humanitarian aid in general, followed by the specific case of Gaza and its complexities. Then, it presents Israel’s actions in view of the humanitarian situation and presents the principles that should be considered as significant cornerstones in the strategic planning of humanitarian response moving forward. Finally, the document proposes the establishment of two central and coordinated mechanisms that will conduct the humanitarian response. One will be a political mechanism entrusted with the making of the strategic decisions that will shape humanitarian policy and will be composed of state entities and central aid agencies. The other will be an operative-executive mechanism entrusted with the implementation of the humanitarian policies and activities on the ground. The document emphasizes that Israel’s security rests on a number of factors, including the promotion of a political solution, international legitimacy, a positive moral identity, and a stable environment – and that proper management of the humanitarian response in Gaza may contribute to all of these. Therefore,

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